Maine needs win to claim playoff bid

The University of Maine football team has worked all season to repeat as Atlantic 10 champion and return to the NCAA Division I-AA playoffs.

Coach Jack Cosgrove’s Black Bears can accomplish both of those goals with a victory Saturday over traditional rival New Hampshire.

Coach Jack Cosgrove’s Black Bears can accomplish both of those goals with a victory Saturday over New Hampshire.

If it loses, UMaine could come up short trying to earn one of only eight at-large bids. Since I-AA field was expanded to 16 teams in 1986, no A-10 team with three league losses has received a postseason bid.

There are 123 I-AA teams.

A UMaine win Saturday also would guarantee the Bears a share of the Atlantic 10 title, and likely an NCAA at-large berth, for the second straight year. It does not mean UMaine would get the automatic berth awarded to the conference champion.

UMaine and Northeastern go into the final game tied with 6-2 league records. If the Bears win and the Huskies lose to James Madison, UMaine gets the bid.

If both teams win, the automatic qualifier would be determined by the A-10’s tiebreaking system. The first criterion is conference winning percentage, which would be a tie if both win. The second is head-to-head competition, but the Bears and Huskies did not play each other this fall.

The system then compares how the two teams fared against the third-place team or teams, and so on down through the ranks, until one of the tied teams has an advantage. If the third-place team is not a common opponent, the tiebreaker moves to the next-highest common opponent.

If the system runs into two or more teams tied for a place in the standings directly beneath the teams tied for first, the A-10 compares each of the contending teams’ combined records against the whole group. Also, all tied teams in that scenario must be common opponents.

There are 15 possible scenarios to determine the automatic bid. UMaine has the edge in four of them, including two if it should lose.

Northeastern has the upper hand in eight, including any scenario that brings the league’s final tie-breaking formula into the equation.

Assuming wins for UMaine and Northeastern, these are the possibilities: UMaine needs UMass to lose to Rhode Island, regardless. Then, if Villanova and William & Mary win, the Bears win the tiebreaker. The same holds true if William & Mary wins, but ‘Nova loses.

The advantage goes to Northeastern in any other scenario if both teams win.

The Bears also can win the automatic bid in two instances where Maine and Northeastern lose: In one, UMass wins, and Villanova and William & Mary lose. In the other, William & Mary is victorious, but ‘Nova and UMass both lose.

There also are two situations under which Villanova could earn the automatic bid and one under which Massachusetts claims the bid.

The National Weather Service’s extended forecast for Saturday is calling for possible rain or snow showers and temperatures around 40 degrees.