To Hamid Karzai, President of Afghanistan,

Third-time salutations from the far side. You see my tomb every time you leave your compound. Only God sees yours, knows where it lies, determines its day of occupation. Allow me, Afghanistan’s “Iron Amir,” to tell you how I worked in concert with God’s will. My memoirs recall the way in which I made a kingdom of Afghanistan, which before had been divided into so many independent states ruled over by separate chiefs; and how I extended my dominions, which at the time of my accession, were no more than the city of Kabul and Jellalabad, together with a few other places. Your weak sway in 2002 is like mine when I started in 1880.

But when I went to God’s rest – in both peace and power – in 1901, the people [had] made such good progress towards civilization, that persons possessing great riches and wealth [could] travel safely throughout my dominions, by night as well as by day, whilst on the other hand, on the borders of Afghanistan, in the parts under British rule, nobody can move a step without being protected by a strong body-guard. Follow my counsel, and may God (rather than Americans) be your ultimate bodyguard.

Speaking of borders, keep close watch on your southern one. Countries, like houses, need secure walls. In case of building a house it must be surrounded by walls to keep the goods safe which are put in it; and if the house is full of holes, ditches, snakes, scorpions, etc., it is ready to get rid of these before any one can live in it. Your other walls seem safe for now, including the one with not-so-evil Iran, but beware the South. Here I was forced to bequeath you a troublesome legacy. In 1893 the British imposed a frontier that even today divides our Pashtun people. Its sole benefit in my time: British forces contained (if not controlled) the vermin on their side. This same land, now Pakistani territory, is once again full of snakes and scorpions. And Pakistan’s aims have been more aggressive than those of imperial Britain. So the holes and ditches – like those used by al-Qaida to escape from Tora Bora – are as open as ever.

Pakistan is more perfidious than Albion. Discount its statement earlier this month regarding Afghanistan: “Pakistan has always desired durable peace and stability and non-intervention in the affairs of that country.” Exactly the reverse is true. It was Pakistan who championed first Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and then the Taliban – both brutally destructive and both still alive. And Pakistan, despite official protestations, still teems with Islamist charlatans intent on grabbing Afghanistan. I once met such rabble in precisely this same border area. At the end of our day’s march an old man at the head of ten disciples, wearing a white turban with hair matted on each side of his ears … appeared in our path. Two of his followers bowed low to him saying, “This is a holy Saiyad” (descendent of the Prophet). I had seen many imposters of this kind, and his appearance gave rise to the suspicion that there was something behind all this saintliness. In fact, he was a celebrated thief, having a band of 100 robbers under him … to plunder our property. Remember, Hamid: There are many devils in the guise of men; do not give your hand to all. Especially to those along the Pakistan border.

More broadly, your main challenge now is like mine then: I had to put in order all those hundreds of petty chiefs, plunderers, robbers, and cut-throats, who were the cause of everlasting trouble in Afghanistan. This necessitated breaking down the feudal and tribal system and substituting one grand system under one law and one rule. Compared to me you have one advantage but three disadvantages.

Your advantage is that, unlike me, you must deal with but one superpower. My Afghanistan was like a poor goat on whom the lion (Britain) and the bear (Russia) have both fixed their eyes. Now you have only America, and it promises long-term support. But note that you and all of Islam are, as Iranian President Khatami says, between two scissor blades: 1) militant Islamist extremism and 2) modern Western secularism. True Islam is at risk from both blades. How will those scissors cut in Afghanistan?

Compared to me, you have three disadvantages. One is that your “petty chiefs” – aka warlords – are, in several cases, better armed than you. Ismail Khan can field 25,000 troops in Herat. As a 16 year-old, I was given command of 30,500. I, myself, inspected all the different departments from morning till night, reporting the progress made daily to my father, who became more pleased every day. The army was so thoroughly organized that neither before nor since has it been in such good order. And how many, once in full power, could I call to arms? As my memoirs state, it would be undesirable to give the number of my troops in this book, but they may have totaled a hundred times the 2000 recruits you now have. I could outgun my warlords; you cannot.

Nor, given today’s notions of a) gender and b) nonhereditary rule, can you co-opt your warlords via marriage. I arranged for my heir Habibullah to marry seven wives, each from a different regional lineage. If these strong men are united to my family by such strong ties, it is in their interest to support my son. Note how modern political correctness complicates politics.

Your second disadvantage has to do with modern limits on deterrence. Mine was an age of more vivid gestures.How, most instructively, to deal with highway robbers? I hoisted them in cages to die of exposure above the highways they’d robbed. Some thieves were levitated even further. One now hangs in a cage, where I put him, on the peaks of the Lataband Mountain. And insurrectionists? I ordered a tower to be erected out of the heads of the dead rebels to strike fear into the hearts of those still alive. Sometimes an example was made only of the ringleaders. I pardoned the soldiers, and sentenced the eight [mutinous] captains to be blown from guns … so, for the time being, the country was restored to tranquility. Back then things were done with a bang.

In today’s era of milder law, you cannot base canons on cannons. Even so, take note of last week’s request from a provincial official whose name, appropriately, is a variant of my own. Abdur Rehman, top cop in Helmand province, speaks of rising crime rates and asks your permission to restore bloody Taliban punishments. Tell him No, but also remember the words in my book from our poet Jami: “To be too gentle makes a man lose his dignity.”

Dignity brings us to the bedrock of Afghan leadership: reputation. Part of it is simply name recognition. The Afghans, who hardly place their confidence in a man they personally know, are the last nation to submit to the rule of a man unknown to them. I was the son and grandson of amirs. My family name had been revered – and obeyed – for decades. Hence your third disadvantage. Your family is old and respected, but not as national rulers. And so your reputation must start from scratch. What value has worldwide celebrity if one is unknown at home?

But the main part of “name” in Afghanistan goes beyond mere recognition. Here I speak of credibility. Never order publicly what you cannot yet enforce. You have demanded disarmament; can you really get those warlord guns (and tanks and planes)? You have barred holders of political office from military involvement; can you really curtail the warlord-politicians whom you yourself appointed? If not, avoid proclamations and opt for subtlety. I prefer to conceal my intentions as long and as far as I can.

In short – and despite adulation abroad – your 2002 situation seems more problematic than mine in 1880. You have more powerful domestic rivals, fewer resources of your own, and thus a greater dependence on outsiders, mainly Americans. Will they prove dependable? Will they realize your needs and energize your efforts … without eroding your fragile legitimacy? I am not a prophet, and … God alone knows. But when push comes to shove – and it will – remember the Iron Amir.

Dr. Whitney Azoy, a cultural anthropologist and former U.S. diplomat in Kabul, has worked for 30 years with Afghanistan and the Muslim world. He was last in Afghanistan in May on a U.S. government contract.