ORONO – In light of the looming state budget deficit, the University of Maine System is unlikely to get the 12.9 percent appropriation increase it has requested, Chancellor Joseph Westphal said Monday.

But without the funding hike, tuition increases, program cuts and layoffs could be in the offing, according to the chancellor, speaking during a break in the UMS board of trustees meeting.

Cutting back on financial aid and on research and development also could be part of a “worst case scenario,” he said. Westphal’s budget request in September did not include a tuition increase.

Westphal said he has been discussing with Gov. John Baldacci the potential impact on the system if the budget request gets turned down.

Pointing out that he made his double-digit funding request before the state Revenue Forecasting Committee’s depressing review of the economy, Westphal said, “It didn’t look good when we submitted it, and it looks even worse now.”

But he said he remains convinced that the system needs $201 million for the next fiscal year and $235 million in 2005 so it can make higher education more accessible and affordable by keeping tuition flat and doubling the amount of money for scholarships and financial aid.

Westphal said he hopes to have “more conversations” with Baldacci before the governor submits his budget to the Legislature in early February.

“Maybe there are some innovations [he’s] thinking about,” the chancellor said.

Much of the meeting, held this month at UM’s Buchanan Alumni House, dealt with the current budget crisis. As part of a presentation to trustees, Grant Pennoyer, director of the Legislature’s Office of Fiscal and Program Review, told them exactly what they would be up against during budget discussions with the Legislature.

Lawmakers are bound to hear complaints from constituents about any reduction in aid to education since they all have a local school unit in their district. But they don’t all have “a UMS presence,” he pointed out.

Another reason higher education funding can be an uphill battle is that the board of trustees makes the actual decisions about what to cut.

“The consequences of UMS funding decisions are indirect and once removed from the legislator’s decision,” he said.

Also, legislators know UMS has other income such as tuition to support operations.

On the plus side, UMS is “probably in the best position it’s been in a long time,” because veteran higher education advocate Sen. Mary Cathcart, D-Orono, is chairman of the Appropriations Committee, Pennoyer said.

Also at the meeting, board Chairman James Mullen said trustees support the idea of making the technical college system into a full-fledged community college system. “This isn’t about turf. This is about being a part of a seamless system of higher education that benefits all citizens of the state of Maine,” he said.