If that voice on the tape really turns out to be Osama bin Laden, and if the disdain for Saddam Hussein on it (for instance, the reference to “infidel regimes in all Arab countries, including Iraq”) is overlooked and it is accepted that the mere mention of Iraq in a speech demonstrates a link, the Bush administration still has the challenge of showing why this link is the one over which to fight a war.

The speech, broadcast by al Jazeera satellite network and advertised by Secretary of State Colin Powell, offers no aid or comfort to Saddam Hussein and spends a lot of time describing how trenches kept al-Qaida members safe from U.S. bombs in Tora Bora. Certainly, it mentions Iraq, but largely to urge the defeat of U.S. forces poised to invade. Mr. bin Laden would be indiscriminate in urging that – any infidel regime would do. The comments on the tape may establish a link when paired with other information that the public cannot see, but it is not persuasive as it stands and is not even as compelling as the recent testimony of CIA Director George Tenet before the Senate.

Mr. Tenet told the Senate intelligence panel Tuesday that Iraq is harboring top leaders of al-Qaida, such as Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, suspected of forming a terror cell in Baghdad. But, he also said, there was similar activity in Pakistan and its link with Saudi Arabia is evident from the origin of the Sept. 11 terrorists. So al-Qaida’s reported links to Iraq are not necessarily more definitive than they are to other countries – countries that the United States has shown no interest in bombing.

For now the two separate dots remain – an international terror organization determined to harm the United States and a cruel dictator who would wish the former the best of luck. It is understandable that U.S. allies, whatever their weaknesses diplomatically, would be reluctant to connect them given with the evidence offered this week.

If there is stronger evidence creating a link, now would be a good time for the administration to present it.