Maine health officials were proud a couple of years ago to report that the rate of teenage births in the state had dropped to among the lowest in the nation, suggesting that the state and non-profit programs that teach birth control and abstinence were unusually effective. Now a new examination of Maine’s numbers suggests that its results have more to do with demographics than education.

Writing in the current Maine Policy Review, Leslie King of Smith College and Stephen Marks of the University of Maine point out that while Maine’s rate of decline in the number of births to teens has been very encouraging, the actual rate of births to non-Hispanic white teens in Maine ranks it 10th out of 11 states in the Northeast, ahead only of Delaware. Further, Maine’s rate is considerably higher than those found in other nations, though much lower than the overall U.S. rate, including the white, non-Hispanic rate.

Teens who give birth are much less likely to finish school and are more likely to live and raise their children in poverty. The relationship between teen births and poverty is not necessarily causal and some teens who give birth do just fine. But the larger trend is discouraging, and the public cost is considerable. The authors point out that as long ago as between 1985 and 1990, the Centers for Disease Control was estimating that the total public cost for teenage births was $120 billion, and that $48 billion could have been saved if each birth had been postponed until the mother was at least 20 years old.

Maine’s higher-than-assumed ranking is bad news because it means that, while the state has made considerable progress, it has not necessarily found the best combination of ways to discourage teen births – it appears to know no more about preventing these births than any other state and may know less. This conclusion can only be tentative – Maine’s rate may continue to fall faster than the other states, thereby giving it a lower birthrate than other states no matter how the demographics are examined. But that hasn’t happened yet.

Meanwhile, Professors King and Marks make three sensible recommendations for further lowering the teen birth rate. They urge more and extended education programs, including instruction in both contraception and abstinence. Second, organizations like the Family Planning Association of Maine should be supported and funded to extend their reach to provide information and services. Third, “Maine, and the United States as a whole, must address poverty and social disadvantage if we want to reduce teenage childbearing.”

The birth statistics in this state are not all bad and progress is being made. But it is not as dramatic as has been previously suggested, and the closer examination shows that Maine still has a long way to go in reducing the number of teens having babies.