Talking with North Korea

A report just published by a privately funded task force points the way toward a possible peaceful resolution of the escalating confrontation between the United States and North Korea. The 36-page report by the Washington-based Center for International Policy says the current confrontation is heading toward either a war in which Japan and South Korea would be the chief victims or else “the worst of both worlds: a nuclear-capable North Korea and severely strained relations with key powers important to U.S. interests.”

For a starter, the task force urges bilateral talks without preconditions, in which both sides would renounce the use of force during negotiations. North Korea would pledge to dismantle its nuclear weapons programs under international monitoring, while the United States would listen to North Korea’s food and energy needs and the prospect of eventually full normalization of political and economic relations.

In a second stage, the United States could offer to resume oil shipments and begin other energy assistance, while North Korea could proceed dismantling its nuclear weapons operations and disclose its foreign sources of nuclear equipment and technology. In a third stage, the United States would press for permanent dismantling of the weapons plants and offer economic incentives in return.

Members of the task force agreed unanimously that North Korea’s arms preparations pose a dangerous threat. They disagreed about North Korean intentions. Most thought the weapons program was a bargaining chip that would be given up in return for economic benefits and security assurances. A minority argued that North Korea is determined to become a nuclear power or at least keep the other powers guessing and thus would be unlikely to accept adequate inspection safeguards. Members agreed on a test in which the United States, South Korea, Japan, China and Russia would guarantee North Korea’s sovereignty and military security and promote its economic development in return for an end to its nuclear program.

The Bush administration has opposed unconditional talks as giving in to “nuclear blackmail.” The report contends that blackmail means “extortion by intimidation” and that both the United States and North Korea have been threatening each other. It ex-plained, “In North Korea’s eyes, it is plausible that the United States, with nearly 10,000 nuclear weapons and overwhelming superiority in air power, might stage a pre-emptive strike.”

Bush administration officials and any other Americans concerned about North Korea will do well to study this sweeping explanation of the situation and its recommendations for dealing with it. Copies are available at no charge from the Center for International Policy at 202-232-3317 or on its Web site, www.ciponline.org.