Contrary to some reports, the debate next week over the Bush administration’s drive to drill for oil and gas in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge still holds a good chance of victory for the conservationists. Two mainstays in the struggle to save the area from exploitation are Maine’s two senators, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, members of a steadfast group of moderate Republicans.

As the bitter fight concludes, their side has gotten a boost from a long-awaited report by the National Academy of Sciences on the environmental consequences of three decades of oil drilling on Alaska’s North Slope. President Bush and Vice President Cheney, both with careers in the oil business, remain adamant in extending the drilling into the wildlife preserve.

A provision on developing oil in the Arctic refuge is expected to be included in a budget measure to be taken up by the full Senate next week for a major debate. The Associated Press reports that a Republican tally shows 49 senators ready to vote for it. A Republican e-mail alert said that Mr. Cheney had been “working madly” to secure the 50th vote. In a 50-50 tie, Mr. Cheney could cast the winning vote. But the Republican moderate bloc probably can more than outweigh the handful of pro-drilling Democrats.

The National Academy’s report carefully avoids any judgment on whether the adverse environmental effects outweigh the benefits, and it notes industry progress in reducing the number of exploratory wells and the size of oil-drilling platforms. But it goes into detail on how the companies generally leave equipment, buildings and roads in place when they have ended production in an area because of the high cost of dismantling, removal and restoration. It said that seismic exploration has forced bowhead whales to alter their fall migration route. The additional human population on the North Slope has provided refuse for scavenging bears, foxes, ravens and gulls, which prey on eggs and nestlings of endangered bird species.

Off-road travel has rutted the tundra, harming vegetation and causing erosion. Although oil development on the North Slope has brought improved schools, health care and housing, the traditional culture has suffered and alcoholism and diabetes have increased among the native population. Finally, cleanup operations after a large spill would be extremely difficult, especially if it occurred in broken ice.

Sen. Snowe, in a meeting this week with national environmental organizations, declared that drilling in the wildlife refuge could not solve the nation’s energy problems and actually would distract the nation from addressing its long-term energy needs. She said it would take 10 years for oil from the refuge even to reach the marketplace, and it would have a negligible effect on our future reliance on foreign imported oil. Instead, she and others, including Sen. Collins, have proposed closing the “SUV loophole” in federal fuel economy standards, as a saving that would offset any oil from the refuge.

The Senate will do well to heed her common sense and block this ill-advised intrusion into one of the nation’s natural wonders.