Wally Gray remembers the gas crisis of the 1970s, when his rental cottages on Sand Point in Bar Harbor were filled all summer despite the high travel costs.

That gives Gray, owner of Emery’s Cottages on the Shore, some comfort this year as gas prices soar to record levels and the nation confronts the real possibility of a new war with Iraq.

“Our reservations are slightly ahead of last year,” he said this week, “and last year was a real good year.”

Gray is not alone in being “slightly optimistic” about the 2003 tourism season. Other business owners and tourism specialists interviewed recently point to a number of positive attributes about Maine that should combine to keep the tourism traffic flowing.

“It’s looking like it’s going to be as busy as last year, and last year was a record-breaker for us, so I have every reason to be optimistic” about the coming summer season, said Donna Fichtner, executive director of the Bangor Convention and Visitors Center.

“The people I’m talking to are very optimistic,” Fichtner said.Tourism specialists point to three factors that should help insulate the state from the myriad national issues that could negatively affect other tourism regions:

. Maine is not dependent on airline travel for the bulk of its tourism business. The state is promoted as a “drive market” that’s within an easy drive from major cities such as New York, Washington, D.C., Philadelphia and Boston.

. In the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, and even in the face of potential new attacks should the United States declare war on Iraq, Maine is perceived as a safe place to live and visit.

. Unlike more exotic or tropical destinations, Maine is considered a family destination, where children are embraced and outdoor fun is emphasized.

Lodging figures since the Sept. 11 attacks bear out the tourism industry’s optimism. According to the state Office of Tourism, taxable sales on lodging have trended upward for the last decade and increased nearly 5 percent in 2002 to $511.8 million.

“Our reservations are up. People aren’t really concerned [about an impending war]. They still have two or three weeks’ vacation, and they’re going to take it,” said Jennifer Lozano, owner of two Bar Harbor inns – the Acacia House Hotel, a summer-only facility, and the Ridgeway Inn, which is open year-round.

“I think more people are going to be driving, and staying closer to home,” she said, “but they’re still thinking of going somewhere. They’re not going to sit at home.”

That’s great news for the thousands of tourist-reliant Maine businesses, many of which must sustain themselves year-round from a seasonal enterprise.

In 2001, the last year for which complete statewide figures are available, the tourism industry generated $8.9 billion in direct and indirect sales, employing 115,000 people for a total payroll of $2.5 billion, according to the state Office of Tourism. Only the pulp and paper industry rivals the economic impact of tourism, according to state officials.

“Maine is going to be a popular destination this summer,” predicted Matt McKenzie, spokesman for the American Automobile Association of New England. “The phones are ringing, people are driving.”

McKenzie said AAA doesn’t track travelers into Maine, but does provide trip information and other services to people traveling outside the state. Business for the Portland-based agency increased in January and February over last year’s numbers, leading McKenzie to think that rising prices have not yet idled motorists.

Although many tourism experts suggest that the still-rising cost of gas won’t have a big impact on the Maine industry, since people won’t cancel their vacations because gas will cost them $50 more than last year, others recognize that every dollar that’s pumped into a car’s gas tank is a dollar not spent in restaurants, gift shops and amusement parks.

“It’s not just the extra $20 to drive from New York to Maine,” said Barbara Whitten, executive director of the Greater Portland Convention and Visitors Center. The record gas prices “significantly affect what we pay every week” and reduces consumers’ buying power for other products and services.

Unlike her counterpart in Bangor, Whitten said she’s concerned about the impact of a looming war and the potential for new terrorist attacks on American soil. That’s because the Portland market is more dependent on air travel than places such as Bar Harbor, or even Bangor.

“When we go to war and terrorism comes, people will stay off airplanes,” Whitten said, adding that the Sept. 11 attacks “still haunt us” in the Portland market. “Bar Harbor won’t be as impacted as the Portland area, but I’m very concerned about where we are and how it might affect us.”

The high gas prices might actually benefit some tourism businesses. Inn owners are beginning to see a new trend: People are planning longer stays, apparently deciding to save gas costs by staying in one place.

“We are seeing more people wanting longer stays,” said Susie Schnetzer, owner of the Greenville Inn. “Where before our average stay was two or three days, now we’re seeing people who plan to stay a week.”

Jennifer Lozano of the Acacia House Hotel concurred. “Our average stay was four days,” she said, “but now it’s five, six, seven [days]. They’re asking for complete weeks.”

Another trend also has emerged, lodging specialists report. While reservations are up for the early part of the tourist season, they are down for the end of the season. That has motel and inn owners speculating that potential travelers are choosing to wait until closer to vacation time to book rooms so that they know more about world events, the economy and gas prices.

“We’ve seen a reduction in advance reservations,” said Clare Bingham, executive director of the Bar Harbor Chamber of Commerce. “I’m sure people are waiting until they know more about what’s going to happen.”

Bingham remains optimistic about the 2003 tourist season but is nevertheless concerned that events could put a damper on vacationers and the industry.

“I think it will be a nervous season,” she said. “I think we will see people’s comfort level diminish” if war breaks out in the Middle East. “It’s hard to say. We’ll have to wait and see.”