The Struggle Begins

As the first strike against Iraq was being launched Wednesday night, President Bush properly warned the public that the war now under way may be “longer and more difficult than some have predicted.” The strength of Iraq’s semi-formidable military and the resolve of its conscripted troops may be questionable, but the challenging terrain, the harsh climate, the potential for chemical and biological weapons and the brutality of Saddam Hussein’s regime are not in doubt. The United States and its allies should be prepared for a long and costly struggle.

It is more likely to be over quickly and with low casualties. The advantages in training, skill and equipment are all on the allied side, even the intangible of morale is lopsided – allied troops need not be backed up by execution squads to prevent desertion. And, despite the invective hurled by the anti-war movement against American and British leaders for the past several months, the leadership on this side of the fight surpasses the gang of thugs running Iraq.

The length and difficulty of which Mr. Bush warned will truly begin when the war ends. The opening hours of the war, with indiscriminate Scud missile attacks and oil wells set afire strongly suggest Saddam Hussein’s intent to inflict maximum and damage and to leave Iraq as much of a wasteland as possible. The challenge to allied commanders of providing security and order in a country governed for so long by ethnic hatred and the repression of civil liberties will be staggering.

The allies need look no farther than nearby Afghanistan to see the scope of this challenge. It has been nearly a year since the Taliban was rousted, yet pockets of resistance remain and tribal warfare is a constant threat. Progress has been made, and it is progress of which all nations that participated in the liberation of Afghanistan should be proud. It is progress, however, that can be quickly undone.

It seems odd to be concerned with rebuilding Iraq as military targets are still being destroyed, but the speed of modern warfare, the lopsided nature of this particular war and the megatons of pent-up anger waiting to explode in Iraq once the current regime’s grip is loosened makes it necessary to prepare for the aftermath of war as the plans for the first strike are being laid. Mr. Bush, in recent speeches, has stated that these preparations are being made; his pledges to follow the military campaign with food and medicine and to see that Iraq’s oil riches are restored to the people of Iraq are right and must be honored.

The run-up to war claimed its share of casualties, most notably the United States’ relations with France, Germany and Russia, the relevance of the United Nations and the civility of Congress. All of these antagonists will be needed in the rebuilding of Iraq; rebuilding the trust and respect to do that will be a struggle in itself.