Need remains for rain in northeastern Maine

Potato farmers are praying for warm, sunny winds to melt the lingering snow and dry the fields for spring planting, but, technically, northern Maine remains in a drought.

The federal government’s national drought monitor for this week on the Internet categorized the northeastern part of Maine as suffering a moderate hydrological drought, which means that while the grass is green and trees are beginning to bud, water is lacking deep down in the ground.

The state still has not fully recovered from the dry summer of 2001, climate experts said Thursday.

“If you’re just talking about the top layer of the earth, it looks pretty moist,” said Hendricus Lulofs, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Caribou.

“With a drought, it’s not like a winter storm,” he said. “You can’t look out the window and see things happening. It’s all underground.”

Maine is the only state on the East Coast that remains under drought conditions, and all but the coast and inland Washington County is still rated as drought or extremely dry, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center, which analyzes climatological data to provide weekly drought monitor reports.

“We’re still teetering … it’s not good, but it’s not like it was a couple of years ago, either,” state climatologist Greg Zielinski, who is based at the University of Maine, said Thursday.

Since the start of 2003, most of the state has received below-average precipitation – about a 3-inch deficit for Bangor and Portland, and a 1.8-inch deficit for Caribou. At the drought’s peak in 2001, the precipitation deficit reached 15 inches in some places.

Last year was a little drier than average. Thus far, 2003 has been drier still.

“It’s been so dry the past couple of years … people have short-term memories and they tend to forget what normal precipitation is like,” Lulofs said.

Under ideal conditions, drought recovery is a matter of years, as several seasons of above-average precipitation are needed to recharge the groundwater reserve that feeds lakes, rivers and household wells.

Groundwater is like money in the bank. If this summer is hot and dry, Maine won’t have that reserve to fall back on, and all the symptoms of full-on drought – forest fire danger, dry wells and struggling crops – could return.

Long-term climate models don’t provide much help. Predictions though August indicate that there is an equal chance of precipitation levels being average, high or low, Lulofs said.

Neither potato nor blueberry farmers are worried yet, their respective industry spokesmen said Thursday.

“The key will be, as always, what happens during the growing season,” said Donald Flannery, executive director of the Maine Potato Board.

The state too, is taking a wait-and-see attitude. The Drought Task Force has not officially disbanded, but it’s on hold until problems arise, said Lynette Miller of the Maine Emergency Management Agency.

“We’re keeping an eye on it, and hoping that Mother Nature treats us well,” Miller said. “At this point, it really is just a question of waiting for the rain to fall.”