AUGUSTA – When former Maine corrections chief Don Allen scrutinizes the potential consequences of prison overcrowding in Maine, he doesn’t see another Attica – yet.

But the chairman of a new state panel charged with finding solutions to the state’s rapidly burgeoning inmate population said conditions throughout Maine’s county jails and correction centers must change soon before it’s too late. Thirty-two inmates and 11 corrections officers died in 1971 when 1,300 prisoners at Attica State Prison in western New York rebelled over poor living conditions.

“I’m not suggesting that we’re having an imminent crisis that could result [in a lockdown or riot],” Allen said. “But we have an opportunity to arrest this upward trend of prison overcrowding before it someday gets out of hand.”

Created by the 121st Legislature, the 17-member Commission to Improve the Sentencing, Supervision, Management and Incarceration of Prisoners met Thursday in the first of six sessions to review issues facing state and county jails.

In addition to Allen, the commission includes Sen. Mary Cathcart, D-Orono; former county prosecutor and now state Rep. Janet Mills, D-Farmington; Maine Supreme Judicial Court Chief Justice Leigh I. Saufley; Maine Attorney General G. Steven Rowe; and Martin Magnusson, commissioner of the Maine Department of Corrections.

Since 2000, Maine’s prison population has increased by 20 percent. Bed shortages, increased safety risks and rising costs prompted the Legislature to establish the broad-based study commission to examine ways to reduce the overall prison population while preserving community safety. The commission is required to submit its recommendations to the Legislature’s Judiciary Committee no later than Dec. 3.

Denise Lord, associate commissioner for the state Department of Corrections, presented the panelists with an overview of population growth in the state’s corrections facilities using charts that reflected a series of accelerated increases followed by periods of stability and more rapid influxes.

From July 2000 through May of this year, the average daily adult population expanded from 1,658 prisoners to 1,979. Lord said when the new Maine State Prison opened in 2001, it was believed the facility would meet the state’s needs through 2010 when the prison population might reach 1,987.

“At one point during this summer we were up to 1,905 prisoners,” she said. “What we once thought would address our needs for at least eight more years has become filled. This growth in the past year caught us truly by surprise.”

Although Maine’s crime rate has been declining during the past few years, Lord said the incarceration rate actually increased although it still remains among the lowest in the country. Instead of spikes in the crime or conviction rates, Lord said, data seem to indicate that short-term sentences of more than nine months but less than a year have risen dramatically resulting in a population surge.

“The increases from year 2000 to 2001 were over 200 percent and 190 percent from 2001 to 2002,” she said.

The change in sentencing practices is more attributable to plea bargain agreements between prosecutors and defense lawyers than the philosophies held by individual judges, Lord said. She added that another factor driving the increased prison population stemmed from larger numbers of convicted individuals on probation being sent or returned to prison for violating the terms of their probation.

Efforts to reduce congestion at certain county jails by prosecutors seeking longer terms of imprisonment that would automatically place the prisoner in a state institution also were identified as influential factors in overpopulation. Magnusson said he believed a decision was made by district attorneys to shift the county jail population into the new larger state institutions as soon as the additional space became available.

“It occurred simultaneously throughout the state in almost every county,” he said. “It’s almost as if someone flipped a switch and the decision was made to change the process.”

The panel members are expected to continue their review of incarceration policies and conditions at a future meeting to be announced later.