Poverty is rising in Maine, although perhaps not as dramatically as a recent Census report describes. What is more important than the actual number is the trend: More Maine people live in poverty and the increase is more noticeable in southern Maine. The state’s reaction – “I’m discouraged … but not completely shocked,” said State Economist Laurie Lachance – represents the feelings of a lot of Maine, unfortunately. But the new numbers should reinvigorate lawmakers and push them to realize that either they act swiftly and urgently or they will find Maine in such bad shape that it will be too late to act.

The Census’ American Community Survey, which shows Maine poverty increasing 46 percent among families between 2000 and 2002, should be viewed with caution because it uses rolling averages that include income figures from, for instance, February 2001 to January 2002, the trough of the recession, and are compared with numbers that include income from the peak of the economic cycle. Another set of Census numbers expected at the end of the month may well show that poverty in Maine is not nearly that high, although considering the increase in Maine of food stamps – 98,000 people using them at the end of 2000; 133,000 by June 2003 – the Census may not be far off.

In any event, Maine doesn’t escape bad news – the rest of the nation saw an average poverty increase of only 5 percent during that same time, so this state almost certainly fared worse than the others. And it should be kept in mind for all states that the federal poverty level is pitifully low – for a household of three including one child, it is $14,480. More than 32,000 Maine families were estimated to live below the federal level. The number would be much higher if a more accurate living-wage scale were used.

The way out of poverty for Maine is complicated and long, but the Gov. Baldacci and many in the Legislature have provided a promising beginning. It includes the governor’s Pine Tree Zones, which focus development incentives on the least well-off regions of the state, a new and much deserved funding bond for Maine’s community college system, more support for research and development, particularly in high-tech and bio-tech fields and a resumed focus on natural-resource-based manufacturing. All of it points to an absolute need to spread development through much more of Maine, so that those with the interest and drive to create careers, to work hard at good jobs, will have the opportunity to be successful no matter where they live in the state.

What to make of the data showing Southern Maine with a faster increase in the rate of poverty than the northern part of the state? One educated guess is that the higher rate reflects the departure of Mainers from elsewhere, going south and looking for careers but finding only subsistence work. If that does turn out to be true, it will simply reinforce the idea that all of Maine must prosper for any of it to remain successful. The poverty numbers may not be completely shocking, and they may not be as dramatic as they appeared this week, but they are reason enough for Maine to act powerfully against the economic forces within that are driving it toward failure.