State casino push enters final month Poll finds tight race; ad campaigns respond

With just a month to go before voters decide the fate of what would be the state’s first Indian casino, Mainers are more evenly divided on the issue than ever, according to a poll to be released today.

The poll, conducted by Portland-based Critical Insights, found that out of 500 respondents, 49 percent favored the casino with 46 percent opposed and 5 percent undecided.

Taking into account the survey’s 4.4 percent margin of error, pollsters weren’t taking bets on the outcome of the much anticipated November referendum.

“It’s really tight,” said Critical Insights President MaryEllen FitzGerald, who on Friday predicted that the complete results of the poll, which included 600 respondents and a 4 percent margin of error, would be similar to the early numbers.

Both sides in the casino debate will be carefully watching those numbers and those in other polls as supporters and opponents of the $650 million casino step up their public appearance schedule and advertising efforts in the weeks before the referendum.

In November, voters will decide whether to allow the Penobscot Nation and Passamaquoddy Tribe to open a casino planned for the southern Maine town of Sanford.

Supporters hail the Foxwoods-style casino as the most significant economic development project in 30 years, promising 10,000 jobs and $100 million for state coffers each year.

Opponents have spent recent weeks looking for loopholes in the 20-page legislation behind the question and uniformly describing the project as a “deceptive casino scheme,” during interviews and in their television spots.

Based on recent polls, including a survey with similar results conducted for WLBZ 2, both messages are finding an audience.

“It pushes a lot of people’s buttons,” said University of Maine at Farmington political science professor Jim Melcher, who warned voters not to put too much faith in either promises of thousands upon thousands of high-paying jobs or warnings of rampant crime and snarled traffic. “Frankly, I think, both sides are overstating what’s going to happen if a casino comes in.”

But understatements and politics rarely keep company – at least during a campaign – and both sides are putting their best foot forward in the waning weeks before the commercials leave the airwaves and voters cast their ballots on Nov. 4.

Casinos No! spokesman Dennis Bailey savored the latest poll results, which he said shows his anti-casino forces chipping away at the initial public support enjoyed by casino supporters.

Bailey likened the casino referendum to the 2000 vote on assisted suicide, both in the amount of money spent and the gradual dissolution of support as the campaign progressed.

“Everyone initially said, ‘Well, what could be wrong with that?'” Bailey said of the assisted suicide question, which ultimately failed at the polls with 52 percent opposed despite initial support in the 70 percent range.

“Then we pointed out some serious problems with the legislation and that was that,” continued Bailey, who opposed the suicide bill. “This is the same thing.”

Erin Lehane, spokeswoman for the pro-casino political action committee Think About It, said she expected the November vote to be close, and echoed the conventional wisdom that a high voter turnout will help her cause.

“[Casinos No!] has always said a low turnout is good for them,” said Lehane, whose group has undertaken a massive absentee ballot registration drive in hopes of increasing turnout. “But this is such an important issue, we want everyone to vote on this.”