Mainers backing Baldacci, bonds Governor gets high marks in poll

AUGUSTA – A recent statewide survey suggests that not only are Mainers backing Gov. John E. Baldacci’s fall bonding proposals, they also think the first-term Bangor Democrat is doing a good job.

Three different bond questions on the Nov. 4 ballot that will pump nearly $90 million into environmental, education and transportation projects were supported by an average of 69 percent of those participating in a poll conducted by Critical Insights of Portland. The survey also indicated that 72 percent of those responding to the survey approved of Baldacci’s job performance and 54 percent held a favorable opinion of the governor.

Fifty percent of those surveyed said they would vote in favor of the proposed tribal casino, while 45 percent – a statistical dead heat – said they would oppose it. Five percent were undecided.

Meanwhile, 63 percent voiced support for a plan to allow slot machines at the state’s two commercial horse racing tracks in Bangor and Scarborough. Only 35 percent opposed them.

A series of layoffs throughout the state’s manufacturing sector has intensified concerns over job retention with 26 percent of those questioned identifying unemployment as the most important issue facing the state today. The figure is up 7 percent from an identical poll taken a year ago and reflected a 19 percent increase over a poll taken in the spring of 2000.

MaryEllen FitzGerald, president of Critical Insights, released her firm’s fall statewide public opinion poll Monday. Six hundred Maine residents participated in the random statewide survey that was conducted Sept. 13 through Sept. 26 using a computer-assisted, telephone dialing selection program.

Seventy-four percent of those polled said they had voted in the 2002 gubernatorial election and 83 percent of the total number of people surveyed said they were “more likely” or “very likely” to vote in the Nov. 4 referendum. The poll’s margin of error was pegged at plus or minus 4 percent.

When surveying Question 4, the environmental bond, Critical Insight’s interviewers read the entire question to polling participants identifying how the $6,950,000 bond was constructed and would be allocated. Sixty-five percent favored the bond, followed by 30 percent who did not and five percent who were undecided.

An identical approach was also taken for Question 5, the $19 million education bond that will upgrade facility improvements at the state’s technical colleges and university system. Sixty-nine percent favored the bond, followed by 28 percent who did not and three percent who were undecided.

Question 5, the $63,450,000 transportation bond, was also explained to the respondents and 73 percent of those surveyed favored the proposal, compared to 24 percent who did not and three percent who were undecided. In each instance, Democrats and unenrolled voters expressed significantly greater support for the bond proposals than Republicans, though more than 50 percent of the GOP still supported the bonds.

FitzGerald attributed the political divisions within the bipartisan support for the bonds to the respondents’ perceived popularity of the Baldacci administration. Seventy-two percent of those polled said they approved of Baldacci’s job performance and only 12 percent disapproved, while 16 percent were undecided.

When it came to whether those polled actually held favorable opinions of Baldacci, however, only 54 percent answered affirmatively. Eight percent stated they held unfavorable opinions of Baldacci and the rest said they either had no opinion or were undecided.

“That means the approval of his job performance is somewhat tenuous,” FitzGerald said. “It’s based solely on him dealing with the cards that he’s been dealt and he really hasn’t been in office that long. If I saw a much higher overall favorability that matched the approval, like Angus King for instance [at the beginning of his first term], I’d say he was sitting pretty. But that’s not what we’re seeing. If there’s any perception that he’s not performing well later, you’ll see both of those quotients slide.”