Poll: Support strong for 1B 40% favor Baldacci tax plan

AUGUSTA – A new survey of 600 Mainers indicates strong approval of Gov. John E. Baldacci’s tax relief proposal with 40 percent of respondents favoring Question 1B on the Nov. 4 ballot, while only 28 percent said they would vote for 1A, the citizen’s initiative launched by the Maine Municipal Association.

Another 24 percent of those polled favor option 1C, which is none of the above, and 8 percent were undecided in the Critical Insights poll released Monday.

MaryEllen FitzGerald of the Portland-based market research firm said 600 Maine residents participated in the random statewide survey that was conducted Sept. 13 through Sept. 26 using a computer-assisted, telephone dialing selection program. The poll’s margin of error was pegged at plus or minus 4 percent.

Seventy-four percent of those polled said they had voted in the 2002 gubernatorial election and 83 percent of the total number of people surveyed said they were “more likely” or “very likely” to vote in the Nov. 4 referendum.

The issue of property tax relief is the first question on the ballot and voters have three choices. Question 1A, the Maine Municipal Association’s citizen initiative, requires the state to boost its current 41.4 percent share of local educational funding to 55 percent next year. Mike Starn, of the MMA, pegs the cost of the initiative at $264 million in additional state education money that would be sent to communities. Starn said the towns, if they chose, could then cut local property taxes by their individual shares of that amount. The MMA initiative leaves it to the Legislature to determine how the additional $264 million will be generated.

Starn said Monday he had no firsthand information on the methodology used in the Critical Insights poll and he maintained that the MMA’s message was tracking well with voters. MMA proponents began airing a television ad for Question 1A the weekend of Sept. 20, which potentially could have been viewed by FitzGerald’s poll respondents.

“I guess I just have no comment on the polling that’s being done at this point,” said Starn, who did not offer to confirm or share any polling information conducted by 1A proponents. “We’re trying to get our message out and make sure that people understand the difference between 1A, 1B and 1C.”

Question 1B is a competing measure to Question 1A offered by the governor and revised by the Legislature. It provides some immediate additional tax relief under existing state programs and incrementally phases in 55 percent of local education costs over several years. Voters may reject both proposals by voting for Question 1C.

Under state law, if neither Question 1A or 1B receives better than 50 percent of the vote, the option receiving the greatest number of ballots would be considered next June as an unopposed question as long as it received at least 33 percent of the total number of votes cast.

A June replay appeared to be the most likely outcome for Question 1B if the results of FitzGerald’s survey remain consistent through election day. Kay Rand, representing Mainers For Responsible Property Tax Relief, which supports 1B, expects to surpass the majority goal once her political action committee gets its own television ads on the air. She was not surprised her question was leading 1A, but she was astonished to learn the competing measure was pulling 40 percent at a time when the MMA plan was so heavily advertised on television and radio.

“We figured that 1A would be getting a soft bump from these ads, so I think people are pretty skeptical over the notion that increasing government spending will produce property tax relief,” Rand said.

FitzGerald said much of the support for 1B could be attributed to Baldacci, who received high marks from her respondents in the area of job performance. The governor may have been able to transfer some of his credibility to the competing measure he helped craft.

“I think the governor has been able to cast enough doubt on 1A and that these responses are simply a reflection of his favorability,” she said. “Whether or not that holds by the time we go to the election remains to be seen.”