In the next two weeks, you might hear Gov. John Baldacci telling you to vote against a proposed Indian casino, but you won’t see him do it – not on television, anyway.

“It’s the message, not the messenger, that’s important,” said Baldacci spokesman Lee Umphrey, explaining the governor’s decision to decline requests to appear in a television ad campaign by the anti-casino group CasinosNo!.

Baldacci – a staunch casino opponent – instead only agreed to lend his voice to 60-second radio spots, said Umphrey, who classified the medium as “less intrusive” than television.

The radio ad, in which Baldacci urges voters to reject a $650 million casino proposed by the Penobscot Nation and Passamaquoddy Tribe, began airing this week.

“He believes that the people of Maine have to make up their own minds on this,” Umphrey said, ruling out any gubernatorial appearances on television ads for or against any of the Nov. 4 referenda, including the administration’s own tax reform measure.

Television, however, can make or break a campaign, pundits agree.

But considering the success – or lack thereof – of Baldacci’s predecessor as a television pitchman, CasinosNo! might breathe a sigh of relief on Election Day that Baldacci didn’t take the group up on its offer to get in front of the cameras.

Despite the popularity of former Gov. Angus King at the time, voters twice rebuffed the Brunswick independent when he tried to sway their votes on ballot questions.

First, in 1997, Mainers rejected his Compact for Maine Forests, billed as a compromise to a proposed ban on clear-cutting. A year later, voters again turned their backs on King, shooting down a gay-rights law passed by the Legislature after King took to the airwaves in its support.

“Maine voters often don’t like people telling them what to do,” warned University of Maine political science professor Amy Fried, adding that Baldacci could sacrifice some of his high popularity numbers should he immerse himself in a debate that has so closely divided the Maine electorate.

“Everyone knows he’s opposed. It doesn’t give him any advantage to go on television,” she said.

Polls have the casino question, Question 3 on the November ballot, too close to call, with opponents picking up support in recent weeks.

Sandy Maisel, a professor of government at Colby College, rejected the notion that King was an ineffective spokesman, despite his 0-2 record on ballot measures. He said King, who now serves as a spokesman for CasinosNo!, likely brought additional support to his past causes – just not enough to prevail at the polls.

Maisel said that Baldacci, like most governors, would also bring votes with him. But the veteran analyst said he understood the governor’s reluctance to put his full political capital behind the anti-casino campaign.

“I’m sure he doesn’t want it to become a defining moment for his administration, which is what happens when you become too closely identified with something,” Maisel said. “I’m sure he has other things he considers more important.”