Latest poll shows support for Indian casino falling

With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, a new poll suggests voters could be getting cold feet about an Indian casino planned for southern Maine.

The survey, released Friday, showed 57 percent of likely voters opposed to Question 3, which is asking voters whether to allow the Penobscot Nation and Passamaquoddy Tribe to operate a $650 million casino resort.

The poll, conducted for WLBZ 2 and WCSH 6 by Survey USA, showed 41 percent in favor and 2 percent undecided among likely voters – those who said they were certain to vote or probably would go to the polls.

Among Mainers who said they were certain to vote, only 36 percent supported the casino compared to 63 percent opposed. Those who considered themselves probable voters were split on the issue.

The survey, which included 857 likely voters, has a 3.4 percent margin of error.

Erin Lehane, spokeswoman for the pro-casino group Think About It, upon hearing the latest numbers Friday, did not dispute them. She did, however, attribute them to “shameful scare tactics” employed by anti-casino forces in recent weeks.”

“The voters of Maine are being lied to in order to steal their biggest opportunity in 30 years,” said an exasperated Lehane, characterizing her group’s polling as “swinging back and forth.”

“But in the end there’s a good chance lies might win, and they simply think they can win by lying,” she said.

Lehane took particular exception to a recent Casinos No! ad depicting wild-eyed children placing bets at the casino.

Casinos No! spokesman Dennis Bailey on Friday defended the ads, citing a provision in the bill that would allow children to play bazaar games at a separate facility.

Lehane equated the games to those commonly found at county fairs, and vowed to step up Think About It’s efforts to win public support for the casino resort, which is expected to employ nearly 5,000 people at a time when the state leads the nation in manufacturing job losses.

“The only way to combat lies is with the truth,” said Lehane, who also disputed critics’ claims that crime would increase in the area should voters approve a casino.

As to the Survey USA poll numbers, Bailey said he was “dubious,” and concerned that the apparent gains in support would prevent his base from going to the polls on Nov. 4.

“I get nervous when I see numbers like that,” he said, adding that his own polls, the latest of which is just a week old, has the race much closer. “We have an aggressive week ahead, and I don’t want anyone taking a nap on this.”

The double-digit swing in numbers from polls taken about a month ago was measured between Oct. 21 and Oct 23, roughly the same time as casino supporters lodged charges of racism against the opponents.

MaryEllen Fitzgerald of the Portland-based polling firm Critical Insights, said raising the race issue was a “strategic error of momentous proportion,” and a possible explanation for the latest poll numbers.

“Mainers consider playing the race card very manipulative,” she said.

Nevertheless, Fitzgerald didn’t see the latest poll as a slam dunk for casino opponents.

She instead predicted a very close race, the outcome of which would be decided by the ability of each camp to mobilize voters on Election Day.