Casino campaigns play their final hands

AUGUSTA – The chief of the Penobscot Nation and governor of Maine made their final stands at separate events Monday in the last day of the contentious and costly campaigns for and against a $650 million Indian casino, the fate of which rests today in the hands of voters.

“We are determined to make a place for ourselves in this state,” Penobscot Nation Chief Barry Dana told a raucous crowd of supporters in the Hall of Flags, referencing the economic boost the casino could give the relatively impoverished tribes, which expect to receive between $50 million and $100 million each year from profits.

“We are here to fight so all Mainers, not just the chosen, privileged few in the southern part of our state have a place,” Dana told the crowd, referencing what casino supporters say is an apparent geographic and economic split between northern and southern Maine over Question 3 on today’s ballot.

The pro-casino rally took place just yards away from Gov. John Baldacci’s State House office, empty Monday with the governor in southern Maine to, among other things, attend an anti-casino rally later that afternoon in Sanford, the proposed site of the casino.

The referendum question, which is expected to draw an above average number of voters to the polls today despite the rainy forecast, would allow – if voters approve – the Penobscot Nation and Passamaquoddy Tribe to open the resort casino in southern Maine if part of the revenue goes to the state.

But recent polls suggest that Dana, who has become the most visible spokesman for the casino in the last weeks of the campaign, could be fighting a losing battle, with nearly 60 percent of likely Maine voters opposed to the project.

Buoyed by the recent poll numbers, members of the aptly and emphatically named anti-casino group Casinos No!, barely contained their optimism at an afternoon rally at the group’s Sanford headquarters that, at points, resembled a victory party complete with congratulations from Baldacci for the group’s hard work and even a plaque for one of the group’s most dedicated volunteers.

“You’ve fought to ensure that this remains a state of opportunity,” Baldacci told the group, which contends the casino would bring with it a number of social ills including increased crime and traffic to the already congested area. Opponents also argue the state could get a better deal on the project but would be locked into a 20-year agreement with the tribes, as mandated by the statute behind the referendum.

“We know why casinos are bad for Maine,” James Bartlett, a member of the Casinos No! executive committee, later told the dozens of supporters who crowded into the downtown headquarters. “Now the Maine voters know it too.”

“I’ll see you at the victory party tomorrow,” he said.

Both sides have gone to extraordinary lengths to tell Maine voters about the proposal, spending a combined $9.5 million – mostly on television ads – in the past several months. The pro-casino political action committee, Think About It, funded almost exclusively by the project’s Las Vegas developer, has spent most of the money, doling out nearly $7 million as of Oct. 23, according to records filed with the state.

From the outset of the campaign, Think About It’s formidable financial backing provided political fodder for the project’s opponents who bristled at the idea of an out-of-state corporation, much less one from the so-called Sin City, spending so much to influence Maine politics.

“We will keep Maine the way life should be and tell them Maine can’t be bought,” said state Rep. Mary Black Andrews, R-York, another of the group’s founders.

But supporters of the casino had their own objections to the source of the Casinos No! money, which came in large part from executives at venerable outdoor outfitter L.L. Bean and credit card giant MBNA, both of which are among the state’s major employers.

Ed Gorham, president of the Maine AFL-CIO, echoed Think About It’s familiar refrain that the big companies simply didn’t want to compete for workers with a casino, the average pay at which would be $31,000, supporters say.

“We’ve seen cutback after closure after layoff with no end in sight,” said Gorham, who decried what he called failed state and local practices of offering corporate tax breaks only to watch some of those companies shut down or move their work force off shore. “We need to send a message that Maine workers need to get back to work and Maine companies need to get back to business.”

At Monday’s State House rally, Gorham vowed to rally union support for the project, which is expected to employ 4,700 people and an additional 2,000 construction workers, which under a project labor agreement with the developer must be paid union wages and benefits although they do not need to belong to a union.

In the past, unions in Maine have at times provided major boosts to political campaigns, most recently to that of U.S. Rep. Michael Michaud, a Democrat and member of the papermakers’ union.

But it remained to be seen Tuesday how much passion union members had for the casino issue, with Gorham estimating that 65 percent of the state’s 50,000 union members supported the plan.

“Turnout will be key,” Gorham said after the Augusta rally.

But if voter turnout is lower than average, as might be the case with the predicted inclement weather, political analysts gave the edge to Casinos No!, whose supporters, early polls have suggested, come from higher income brackets. That group is generally more likely to vote, according to Amy Fried, a University of Maine political science professor.

“But anything can happen,” she added.