RUMSFELD’S LONG SLOG

The secretary of defense is right, of course, that the Iraq occupation – actually a continuation of the war – will be a long slog. True enough. Never mind that his remark was in a private memo that somehow was leaked to the press. The leak may well have been at Mr. Rumsfeld’s direction, so as to distinguish himself from Gen. William Westmoreland’s unfortunate remark in that earlier quagmire, Vietnam, that there was “light at the end of the tunnel.”

How long a slog remains a question. U.S. deaths in action are now running at more than one a day, with seven additional injured for every fatality. The rate has been accelerating, and the recent deaths of 22 American soldiers in two attacks when their helicopters were shot down were ominous signs of an expanding and more sophisticated guerrilla war.

Apparently a shoulder-fired surface-to-air missile shot down the Chinook helicopter in the first attack last Sunday. In the second, on Friday, a U.S. Army UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter crashed near the Tigris River after it was apparently struck by ground fire. U.S. military officials in Iraq are quoted as counting about 20 similar, though unsuccessful, attacks on allied aircraft using similar weapons since June.

Hundreds of the Russian-designed SA-7 missiles are said to be scattered throughout Iraq, many of them uncounted and unsecured. The American military is offering a reward of $500 for each one turned in but has received only 317 of them since major fighting was declared ended on May 1. They sell for as much as $5,000 apiece on the black market. They are easy to smuggle, since they weight only 30 pounds and are less than six feet long. A guerrilla can lie in wait in an airport flight path, take aim and pull the trigger to launch the explosive heat-seeking warhead. It can lock in on the heat from a plane’s engine.

Defensive flares and chaff can often deflect the missiles, but the guerrillas appear to be increasingly adept in firing them. American forces on the ground are also vulnerable to daily attacks using rocket-propelled grenades, other weapons easily obtained in the continuing chaos in parts of Iraq.

These expanding guerrilla attacks pose a tough question for the Bush administration. While the long-term plan is to turn over Iraqi security to an Iraqi military force, its organization and training will take a while. In the meantime, American forces must do the job, with the help of Britain and a few other countries. With the reluctance of Turkey to supply occupation troops, additional U.S. reserves may have to be sent in.

While the administration continues to enjoy considerable support, criticism and doubts are increasing. For example, a recent cover story in The New York Times Magazine asked, “Who Botched the Occupation?” Under the headline “Blueprint for a Mess,” the article traced the Pentagon’s plan that relied heavily on the advice of Iraqi refugees to anticipate a warm welcome and a relatively easy occupation to turn Iraq into a model for a democratic and peaceful Arab Middle East.

The second Gulf War, which looked easy to some, is far from over.