The University of Maine football team has spent the 2003 season living on the edge.

Coach Jack Cosgrove’s Black Bears have been one turnover, one big play, or one penalty away from winning two or three more games.

Unfortunately for the 23rd-ranked Bears, their shortcomings very likely will keep them from making a third straight trip to the NCAA Division I-AA football playoffs.

UMaine has earned back-to-back at-large bids, going 8-2 during the 2001 regular season and 10-2 last season.

UMaine takes a 7-4 record into Saturday’s season-ending Atlantic 10 game at archrival New Hampshire. Even a victory against the Wildcats isn’t likely to propel the Bears into legitimate playoff contention.

For starters, there are only eight at-large berths available. Some of those are pretty well sewed up, including one for either Delaware or Massachusetts, whichever does not get the Atlantic 10’s automatic bid.

Barring any major upsets of expected league champs, which would eat up other at-large bids and hurt UMaine’s chances, can’t-miss teams in the at-large category include No. 5 Southern Illinois (10-1), No. 11 Western Illinois (8-3), and No. 17 Northern Arizona (8-3), all of which have completed their regular seasons.

Then there’s No. 10 Western Kentucky (8-3), No. 14 Florida Atlantic (8-2, game left vs. Florida International) and unranked Lehigh (7-3, vs. Lafayette). Then, consider No. 18 Villanova (7-3), which would likely be a lock if it can beat Delaware.

And if ‘Nova doesn’t win, Appalachian State (7-4) is a strong candidate and Bethune-Cookman (8-2, Florida A&M) could finish with nine wins, even though it plays in the weak Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference.

UMaine is decidedly on the fringe, even though it plays in the respected Atlantic 10, the third-ranked I-AA conference behind the Big Sky and Gateway in the ratings calculated by Jeff Sagarin. As pointed out by Tony Moss, The Sports Network’s I-AA football guru, even though the Bears’ losses all came against ranked teams in Delaware, Montana, Massachusetts, and Northeastern, their only notable win came against then-No. 13 Villanova.

And that doesn’t even take into consideration UMaine’s awarded win over William & Mary, which canceled their Sept. 27 game because of damage from Hurricane Isabel.

Only twice previously has the NCAA selection committee awarded an at-large bid to a team with four losses: Appalachian State (7-4) in 1992 and Idaho (6-4) in ’95. And only once, last season, has the Atlantic 10 had a team with three league losses (Villanova) receive an at-large bid.

In the Bears’ favor is a strength of schedule that is better than some at-large candidates. And one could even consider the fact UMaine is the only team to win first-round games on the road the last two seasons.

But the damage, especially the heart-wrenching loss at Delaware and the UMass setback, has already been done. The Bears’ chances are remote.

Cosgrove said UMaine’s focus this week is on beating New Hampshire and retaining possession of the spoils in the rivalry, the Brice-Cowell Musket.

“We have to win next week,” Cosgrove said. “If we do that, I always believe things happen for a reason, and maybe some good things will happen to us as a result.”