CHANGE IN THE WEATHER

Massive food and water shortages forcing millions of people to flee their homelands for more hospitable climes causing border blockades, nuclear proliferation and constant war may sound like a scenario from Hollywood thriller. But such a scene may not be far-fetched, according to a Pentagon report on the consequences of abrupt climate change.

The report, which was detailed in a recent issue of Fortune magazine, is not meant to be a forecast, but rather a “what-if” document to help military planners develop strategies to cope with possible relatively sudden changes in the world’s climate. It is interesting to note that while some in the Bush administration continue to question whether global climate change is occurring, the Department of Defense is preparing to deal with the consequences of a newly identified phenomenon, abrupt climate change. This relatively new theory posits that rather than occurring over centuries, portions of the globe may significantly warm or cool in only a matter of decades. This happens because of changes in ocean currents and atmospheric patterns. The result could be a time of harsh winters, droughts and massive storms.

The consequences for the United States, according to the declassified Pentagon paper, could include a flood of starving immigrants from Mexico, South America and the Carribean Islands, causing the country to strengthen its borders. Tensions with Mexico could escalate if the United States reneges on a treaty that guarantees that some water from the Colorado River flow into Mexico. The country could be forced to rely more heavily on oil from the Middle East and nuclear power to meet growing energy demands. The consequences would be worse for Europe, Asia and East Africa, the analysis says.

Geo-politically, the changes in weather could lead to more fighting and new alliances. Eastern European countries, for example, could invade Russia to gain access to its minerals and oil and India, Pakistan and China, all with nuclear weapons, could face heightened fighting over access to shared rivers and arable land. North and South Korea could join together to form a formidable nuclear-armed state. Canada could join the United States in forming a North American fortress or it could decide to go it alone to protect its hydro-electric resources from the power hungry states.

Because of these potentially serious consequences, the Pentagon report calls for speeding up research into abrupt climate change, its causes and the possibility of off-setting it with human activities. Even if the changes are not as drastic as those outlined by the Pentagon, better understanding climate patterns could assist agriculture planning, health care and other aspects of our daily lives.

The Pentagon’s work, coupled with a recent National Academy of Sciences study identifying abrupt climate change as a serious issue that needs immediate study, could be a boon to the University of Maine. The university is home to two leading researchers into the phenomenon, Paul Mayewski and George Denton, and the highly regarded Climate Change Institute. Sen. Susan Collins succeeded in including $60 million for abrupt climate change research in the massive energy bill that is now stalled in Washington. As an alternative, the funding will soon be considered on its own by the Senate Commerce Committee. Much of the money would come to Maine, where the university would play a leadership role in developing national research priorities. Also due to Sen. Collins’ efforts, UMaine will soon receive $500,000 for abrupt climate research from the omnibus spending bill recently approved by Congress.

The university recently built an ice core lab and has acquired state-of-the-art equipment with federal and state research funds. A large infusion of federal dollars would not only enable the university to help the Pentagon and other agencies prepare for what may be coming, it would also increase and improve research opportunities for UMaine students, while boosting the profile of the campus.