Three programs teeming with recent tournament experience – Foxcroft Academy, Camden Hills of Rockport and Erskine Academy of South China – have risen to the top of the Eastern Maine Class B schoolboy basketball standings, something not totally unexpected when the 2003-04 season began.

“I think it’s turned out in the end the way people probably predicted at the beginning of the year,” said Hermon coach Alan Tweedie. “It’s pretty wide open. There are teams that we knew would be strong, but there’s no one team that dominates totally like in some years.”

All three of the frontrunners reached the regional semifinals last year, with Erskine advancing to the Eastern B championship game before bowing to eventual state champion Winslow.

Foxcroft features junior forward Matt Carey and several members of the school’s 2003 state championship football team, among them senior guards Josh Withee and Lincoln Robinson and junior swingman Bobby Gilbert. The Ponies also received a big late-season boost when 6-foot-8 senior center Brandon Hall returned to the lineup after missing the Ponies’ first 14 games while recovering from a torn anterior cruciate ligament.

Camden Hills has three go-to players in forwards Tim Stammen and Ryan Fitzgerald and point guard Jamey Davis, as well as a relentless defensive presence that has been symbolic of Jeff Hart’s 22-year coaching reign in Rockport.

Erskine Academy, meanwhile, has been led by the play of senior swingman Matt Donar and a solid frontcourt featuring center Josh Jones and forwards Darrell and Kevin Haskell.

“Teams that have been there before aren’t in awe of the experience of playing a game in the Auditorium any more,” said Foxcroft Academy coach David Carey.

“Now it’s about taking care of business. We’re not looking at playing a game there, we’re looking at the bigger picture.”

Still, it would be foolhardy to suggest that any of those teams, or any other postseason qualifier from the region, is a prohibitive favorite to represent Eastern Maine in the Class B state championship game.

“Survival, that’s what it’s going to be,” said Hart.

“I’ve told my guys this could be a tournament where the winner is going to have three or four two-point wins, a couple in overtime.”

The fact that no Eastern B team finished with fewer than two losses suggests that all the teams are vulnerable, and several other teams have established themselves as legitimate contenders.

Ellsworth and Hermon each split its season series against Foxcroft, while Maranacook of Readfield owns wins over both Camden Hills and Erskine Academy. Defending champion Winslow still has several players with championship experience, while Mount Desert Island and Class B newcomer Presque Isle have improved after getting off to slow starts.

“There’s a lot of parity,” said Ellsworth coach Dan Clifford. “I think Foxcroft is the best team in our conference, and everybody says Camden Hills and Erskine are pretty solid.”

“After those three, there’s a lot of parity, and the other teams are good enough to knock those three teams off on a given night. It’s exciting one through 11; there’s a lot of good teams.”

So what will make or break a team’s tournament hopes?

Foul trouble and free throws, defense and depth are among the key factors, along with other elements less tangible.

“You just can never predict what team will go in and just get on a roll at the right time,” said Tweedie.

“You can’t even predict it at the end of a season, even at the last game. It just happens at the tournament.

“It’s a mystery, and it’s what makes the tournament wonderful.”