Maine No. 4 for new arrivals Census data show impressive growth; birth rate remains low

AUGUSTA – Call it a burp. Call it a blip. Call it tentative. Call it a trend.

Census figures released last month indicate that Maine suddenly has joined such hot population magnets as Nevada and Florida in drawing more new arrivals than suitcasers heading out.

In the words of demographers, Maine had the fourth-highest net in-migration in the nation from 2002 to 2003.

That is leaving economists, planners and state policy-makers scratching their heads.

“What we had decided, in discussing it among several economists, was that probably the direction of the change is correct,” state economist Laurie LaChance said last week, “but the magnitude will likely be revised downward.”

Even if the figures are revised, LaChance said, it certainly is good news for the state. But, she said, just how good depends on more analysis and whether the one-year increase continues.

Maine had 1.27 million people in the 2000 Census. It had just fewer than 1.3 million people in 2002, the Census Bureau calculates. From 2000 to 2002, its rate of growth was 1.5 percent.

The Census Bureau now calculates that Maine grew 0.76 percent, from 2002 to 2003, as a result of more people moving to the state than leaving. Only Nevada, Arizona and Florida had higher rates.

Nevada, with growth of 2.06 percent, continues its 17-year position as the state with the highest in-migration growth in the nation. Arizona, with growth of 1.12 percent growth, was No. 2, and Florida, with 1.06 percent growth, was third in the nation.

Maine previously had very little net in-migration, and actually lost population during some of the 1990s.

What concerns the experts looking at the numbers is not that Maine had significant in-migration; it is the size of the in-migration. For more than a decade, Maine was ranked 44th in the nation for overall growth, which is when births and net in-migration are added together. The latest Census numbers would place Maine 22nd in the nation for overall growth, from 2002 to 2003.

Yet, Maine continues to rank among the lowest in the nation in birth rate, accounting for just 0.01 percent growth from 2002 to 2003.

“The Census was predicting there would be an increase from in-migration,” said Deirdre Mageean, an associate vice president at the University of Maine and former director of the Margaret Chase Smith Center for Public Policy. She has researched Maine’s demographic patterns.

“These numbers get revised quite regularly, and, when the numbers are finalized, we may not be doing as well as these preliminary numbers indicate,” she said.

Mageean said the latest studies of why people move have seen an increase in the importance of amenities and individuals making decisions based on their own personal circumstances.

“The studies show close proximity to bodies of water is very important to many people,” she said, “and to scenic places, and we have plenty of both in Maine.”

But, Mageean said, great amenities alone will not draw people to the state. She said they need jobs to support their families.

The researchers do not have the detailed data they want to figure out who is moving into the state. But, they do have some research data that indicate it is not just retirees moving in.

University of Southern Maine economist Charles Colgan has been looking at statistical data from the federal Internal Revenue Service. “It tells you the number of exemptions and whether they claim the over-65 exemption,” he said.

“So you can get a picture of the number of retirees moving in,” Colgan said. “And basically that has been consistent. Growth has been in the nonretirees, people not claiming that 65 and over exemption.”

Colgan agrees with LaChance that the Census figures are in the right direction, but he does not believe the increase has been as large as indicated. He said Maine’s economy, while basically showing no growth, has not “tanked,” as have some in other states, and that has left Maine relatively better off than many states.

In addition to the amenities “index” that Maine scores well on, another explanation could be the high ranking parts of Maine get on the creativity “index” developed by Carnegie-Mellon University professor Richard Florida.

He has been invited to speak to a conference on the creative economy that Gov. John Baldacci has called that will be held in Lewiston in May.

“Portland is really kicking,” Florida said. “The rest of the state has to decide if it wants to join in doing what it takes to attract the creative people that bring with them economic growth.”

The “creative class” includes artists, teachers, musicians, gays and mixed-race couples. It is a group of people who are well-educated and want jobs that fit with their lifestyles.

In any event, the latest population news left Baldacci cheery last week.

“I think this is just great news,” he said. “Maine has been growing. I have been hearing it from Realtors. I have been hearing it from people working in … architecture, engineering, and researchers in those fields.”