Fewer students forecast in state schools’ future 12 percent drop in enrollment predicted over next 10 years

AUGUSTA – During the next decade, K-12 student enrollment statewide is projected to decline by more than 12 percent, part of a “devastating” demographic trend that officials say will force school systems to deliver services more efficiently and will bolster Gov. John Baldacci’s plan for regionalization and consolidation.

The forecast drop in the number of students – from 206,600 to 180,000 – is driven by out-migration and a low birth rate, according to a report presented to the State Board of Education on Wednesday.

“The numbers are devastating,” said Suzan Cameron of the Maine Department of Education, who gave the dire predictions.

“This is the most opportune time for the governor’s regionalization plan,” Cameron said. Declining enrollment will affect everything from tuition rates to state funding to per-student costs, she added.

According to the projections, hardest hit will be Piscataquis and Washington counties; each is predicted to lose more than 25 percent of its students. Meanwhile, Franklin County is expected to lose nearly 25 percent and Aroostook County more than 20 percent.

But even parts of Maine that heretofore have seen student numbers increase because of in-migration will be affected, Cameron said.

Although Cumberland County gained more than 5 percent in student population and York County around 3 percent during the last 10 years, the influx won’t continue.

The two counties are each projected to lose more than 5 percent of their students by 2013. And while Knox County has experienced nearly 2 percent growth in students during the last five years, it’s projected to have more than a 10 percent decrease during the next 10 years.

Enrollment statewide has gone down about 4 percent in the last decade, according to the report. It is expected to decrease statewide by more than 2 percent by next year and by more than 8 percent by 2008, according to the report.

“It’s numbers like this that cause us to look so seriously at regionalization and consolidation,” said Jean Gulliver, chairwoman of the state board. “We’re facing profound and significant changes that will affect every aspect of the way we deliver services and live in this state.”

School systems will need to “think outside the box,” said Board of Education member Jack Norris. More schools will need to start using interactive video systems to offer classes they couldn’t otherwise afford to provide, he said.

Deputy Commissioner of Education Patrick Phillips said the numbers also point to the vital role the Learning Results will play in preparing students for the future.

“With fewer and fewer students, it will be much more important for each student to be prepared to play an active role in the work force and community,” he said.