For years, scientists have been predicting a decline in Maine’s lobster population, but each year, the lobster catch rises to a new level. Such a seeming disconnect between what scientists think will happen and what lobstermen are experiencing has caused fishermen to distrust scientists and the government regulations that are built on their predictions. As one of the state’s leading lobster researchers, Carl Wilson of the Department of Marine Resources, says, it is hard to discuss the decline in lobster egg production with fishermen when the amount of lobster caught has tripled over the last 20 years.

Both the scientists who predict a decline in the lobster population and the fishermen who continue to haul in record catches could be right. The overall stock could be decreasing as scientists think, but local populations may be doing fine. In addition, fishermen, using increasingly better technology, are able to maintain their catches even as the resource declines. This cannot go on forever, however, and both fishermen and fisheries managers will benefit from having better information.

To change the current distrustful relationship between managers and fisherman, Mr. Wilson and a researcher from the University of Maine are working on a new model for predicting the future of the state’s valuable lobster population. Information from fishermen will take on new importance in the model developed by Yong Chen, a professor of fisheries population dynamics at UMaine.

Current models are based on data collected from two main sources: scientists who ride along on a few fishing trips and trawlers surveys conducted by fisheries management services. The new model would incorporate data from other sources including fishermen’s direct observations and previous ecological studies. These sources could provide vital information that is now lacking.

Other countries already have discovered the value of fishermen’s first-hand information. In western Australia conditions for obtaining a rock lobster license include a requirement to keep a monthly log of catch and fishing effort that is recorded on large map blocks. Thirty to 40 percent of fishermen also keep voluntary logbooks recording daily catches over smaller areas. This system includes data from 1964 onward.

In Maine, on the other hand, total lobster catch is recorded, but no one keeps track of who caught them and where. Prof. Chen and Mr. Wilson are working to change that. They have completed testing of their model using simulated data and are now inputting real data. They hope their data is part of the stock assessment to be conducted this fall by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission. Including the Chen/Wilson model should make that analysis more accurate and, most importantly, more credible.

Lobsters account for 70 percent of the value of Maine’s marine resources. When so much is at stake, it only makes sense to have an accurate picture of what has happened and what is likely to happen in the future.