Maine’s school-age population expected to decline

AUGUSTA – Maine’s public school population is expected to fall about 8 percent between 2002 and 2017, with enrollments declining more than 50 percent in some communities, according to a new report.

The number of students in Maine public schools is projected to slide from 208,588 students in 2002 to 191,270 in 2017, according to the State Planning Office. The number is expected to bottom out at 176,048 in 2011 – a drop of more than 15 percent – before rebounding.

The hardest-hit areas are in the regions experiencing economic declines. In Millinocket, the school-age population is projected to fall 68 percent between 2002 and 2017; in Calais, it is expected to drop 48 percent.

But other places will feel the crunch as well, according to the report.

In the midcoast area, for instance, the school population in Bath is projected to decline by more than 40 percent, or 513 students. In Woolwich, the school-age population is expected to fall 45 percent, from 464 to 268. Lisbon’s enrollment is projected to slip by more than a third, from 1,430 to 931.

Not all towns expect such dramatic declines – Brunswick’s school population is expected to remain relatively flat, and Bowdoin’s school-age population is expected to gain 25 percent, from 593 to 751.

Galen Rose of the State Planning Office said a decline in the birth rate is a big factor behind the population decline. That, in part, can be attributed to Maine’s graying population; Maine has the third-oldest median age of any state.

“The number of live births began declining in the early 1990s,” Rose said.

The planning office figures mirror other studies and census data that also show a population decline among young people.

A U.S. Department of Education study projects that enrollment in Maine’s primary and secondary schools will slip 2.4 percent from 2001 to 2013. Census data show that between 2000 and 2003, the number of Maine children ages 5 to 13 dropped 7.5 percent.

Ron Gleason, superintendent of School Union 47 (West Bath area), said the enrollment projections make it difficult to plan in areas such as staffing, curriculum and facilities management.

“This will directly affect space and staffing issues,” he said. “For example, if you need two or three teachers now, but your enrollment drops in five years, what happens to those positions?”

Bath School Superintendent Michael Lafortune said the enrollment projects are “a shock to see at first.”

The school system has hired an independent firm to conduct a demographic study of Bath to be used in conjunction with state figures in helping plan the district’s future.