Tipping Point in Iraq

Big trouble began for the United States in Iraq almost as soon as it seemed it could declare victory. Secretary Rumsfeld’s lean army didn’t stop widespread looting or safeguard huge stocks of Iraqi weapons. Guerrilla warfare broke out, Iraqi insurgents were joined by infiltrating al-Qaida terrorists. Suicide bombers attacked American and allied forces as well as fellow Iraqis. The original justification for the war evaporated when no weapons of mass destruction could be found and no basis could be discovered for the alleged Saddam-bin Laden partnership.

That U.S. troops performed, with rare exception, so well under these events was a tribute to their skills and courage, and their initial successes were appreciated. Military experts described the limited amount of time the United States had to end the fighting before losing the confidence of the Iraqi population. Those deadlines came and went, but the troops persisted, backed and filled between attack and negotiation in the face of the obvious danger that the use of heavy weapons would kill innocent Iraqi bystanders. Now, with so much that has gone wrong, even that bravery and good intentions don’t seem enough.

The Iraq war has reached a tipping point. Some of the original hard-line supporters of the war, academics as well as pundits, are switching to the view that the war is unwinnable, that the dream of creating a free and democratic Iraq is unachievable, and that the thing to do is find an exit strategy. The tipping point came in Vietnam when Walter Cronkite, the respected CBS anchorman, traveled to Saigon to see for himself and asked, “What’s going on here?” He concluded tht the war was a stalemate. President Lyndon Johnson, who had steadfastly supported the war, said, “I’ve lost Walter. I’ve lost middle America.”

This time, there is no one with Walter Cronkite’s stature and influence. Nor is there any congressional leader prepared to galvanize the country, as did Sen. J. William Fulbright with his televised hearings and speeches with titles like “Old Myths and New Realities.”

A possible way to get out of the Iraq mess seems to be taking shape, and President Bush can lead the way, despite neo-conservatives who might oppose him. For all the violence and uncertainty, the president has made a persuasive case for keeping the June 30 date to turn over sovereignty to an interim government of tehnocrats still to be named by the United Nations. U.S. forces must remain for some time, but they can be removed from the spotlight by putting them under either UN or NATO command. And Iraqi elections to form a permanent government, now scheduled for January, should be moved up as soon as possible to give Iraqis a sense of running their own country.

This means giving up the grandiose idea that the United States can transform Iraq into a free and democratic model for the entire Arab and Muslim worlds. It may mean that the Iraqis will choose some sort of theocracy, with whatever that may mean for human rights. It will be their country, and the United States must give up the idea that it can force them to run it a specific way.