Residents of Lincoln should be forgiven for their muted excitement about the reopening of the paper mill that has long been the center of town. They are pleased that 360 people went back to work yesterday at what is now called Lincoln Paper and Tissue Co. However, they, like many others in the state, wonder how long even those jobs will last in the state’s turbulent paper industry.

The good news is that thanks to a lot of hard work by state and local officials, the bankruptcy court, private investors and others, the mill in Lincoln, shuttered since January, has restarted. A less determined governor may have given up on the aged mill and the complex and confrontational bankruptcy process. But Gov. Baldacci and his team of economic and environmental officials and others such as Peter Vigue of Cianbro did not. Just as they have with two other paper mills that closed, they found creative ways to keep the paper machines running.

In each case, however, the restarted mill was smaller than the one that closed. The former Great Northern Paper, now called Katahdin Paper, has 375 working at its mill in East Millinocket and an upgraded Millinocket mill is supposed to reopen by the end of this month and may employ up to 175 people. Half the company’s jobs disappeared after its January 2003 bankruptcy.

A few months later, Georgia-Pacific Corp. announced it would stop making paper at its mill in Old Town. Again Gov. Baldacci and others convinced the company to restart one paper machine. Less than half the 300 people who lost their jobs were rehired.

In Lincoln, 140 jobs were lost between the January shutdown and Tuesday’s re-opening. In addition, a sister mill in Brewer is likely to remain closed forever with another 300 jobs lost. Equally troubling is the fact that the new owners have so far pledged no upgrades to or investments in the mills’ aged machinery.

The trend is clear – no matter how many tricks the governor and his team can pull out of their hat, the number of paper mill jobs is fast declining in Maine. This is not a surprise to industry analysts, but it is a hard lesson for places in Maine that depend heavily on the mills. While the governor naturally wants to save every job he can, creating new jobs in new and growing industries will pay much bigger dividends long term. Creating Pine Tree Zones with special incentives for development is one good idea and the governor’s task force on natural resources is another, but they are just a start.

Sen. Stephen Stanley, himself a millworker from Medway, proposed that $10 million be given to support job creation under a program that gives tax breaks to businesses hiring new workers in distressed communities. Depending on the level of unemployment, the tax rebate for the company would go up significantly. This common-sense idea unfortunately died in the battle over a tax relief package in the final days of the Legislature.

For now, Lincoln residents can cheer, but they are wise to keep a wary eye on the future.