No one knows exactly what will happen to Maine’s black bear population if a November referendum to ban bear baiting is approved by voters, but taxidermists say that in every scenario, they lose.

The Maine Association of Taxidermists estimates that its members could lose a million dollars in revenue.

“We’re not talking little money here,” said association member Mark Russell, who runs a business in North Yarmouth.

A group called Maine Citizens for Fair Bear Hunting has proposed the ban on shooting bears over bait, trapping, and hunting bears with dogs.

Citing statistics from states such as Oregon and Colorado where bear baiting is not allowed, they say that hunting businesses may take a hit in the short term, but that the bear industry could recover and even expand as hunters learn new methods.

“This is not the end of bear hunting in Maine … this is a ban on certain practices only,” said Bill Randall of Hunters for Fair Bear Hunting, another group working for passage of the referendum.

However, a coalition of pro-baiting organizations called Maine’s Fish and Wildlife Conservation Council argues that the referendum would destroy bear hunting in the long term, because the out-of-state hunters who make up a majority of the Maine hunt would simply take their business somewhere that does allow baiting – such as Quebec, where the bear hunt industry is booming.But whether the hunt would increase or decrease in the long run, all parties agree that the annual kill of about 4,000 bears would drop for at least a few years if the referendum passes.

The Maine Association of Taxidermists has been collecting statistics to contribute to a larger economic study being prepared by the Fish and Wildlife Conservation Council.

The 106 licensed taxidermists in Maine mount at least half of all the bears killed here – 2,000 bears. Each bear costs between $400 and $2,000, depending on whether the hunter wants a rug, a mounted head or a full animal.

John Wardwell, who runs a South China shop and serves as president of the Maine Association of Taxidermists, said he expects to see nearly all of this bear revenue lost if the referendum passes, because most hunters would seek opportunities for a baited hunt elsewhere.

Randall doubts the accuracy of economic impact studies, particularly when they support a political end, he said.

“The doom and gloomers always use speculative economic fear in their campaigns,” he said.

But for most taxidermists, even those located far from bear hunting strongholds, any risk of losing bear, one of only three big-game animals in Maine, is too much.

“Bears are half of my work,” said Wardwell.

“After 15 years, I just finally went full time this year,” he said. If the referendum passes, “the hunt would be peanuts. … I’d probably have to turn around and get a part-time job.”

Russell tells a similar story, calling bears his “lifeblood.” Neither man wants to close his business, but if the bear hunt shrinks, each said they would have to find other sources of income, and pursue taxidermy as a pricey part-time hobby.

Taxidermy “is an art form,” Russell said. “It’s something that once you get into it, it affects your whole life.”

In northern Maine, where nearly all of the bears are shot, taxidermists are even more worried.

“I wouldn’t survive without bears,” said Steve Jandreau, whose business, Wildlife Artistry, is based in the heart of bear country, the town of Portage in Aroostook County.

Jandreau alone took in 180 bears last year, representing about 75 percent of his income, he said.

Many taxidermists work in partnership with bear guides who send business their way. Many guides also attribute most of their income to out-of-staters. Last year 90 percent of Jandreau’s bear customers were visitors to Maine, who left their bears behind to be butchered and mounted here, rather than drive the carcasses home and risk having them spoil.

“The out-of-state bear hunters generally don’t have a problem spending whatever they need to, to get the job done,” Russell said.

Without baiting as a draw, taxidermists worry that hunters will move on to places where baiting is legal, and that they will have their trophies mounted near where they hunt.

“Canada will clean up. They will just absolutely be flooded with clients,” Russell said.

Jandreau has been thinking ahead, and though he’s involved with the coalition fighting the ban, he’s also building up a backlog of bears to be mounted.

“I was afraid to turn down any work,” he said. “The economy is bad enough up here without losing the bears.”