AUGUSTA – Supporters and opponents of next Tuesday’s statewide referendum on property tax relief are frantically working behind the scenes this weekend to spread word of the vote for what many election watchers predict will be one of the lowest turnouts in years.

In fact, a Portland-based marketing surveyor predicted Friday that Question 1 – the only question on the ballot – will be decided by as few as 200,000 of Maine’s estimated 1 million eligible voters.

“It could be a 20 percent turnout – or lower,” said MaryEllen FitzGerald of Critical Insights. “People just aren’t engaging this issue. They feel it was the Legislature’s responsibility. The side that does the best job of getting its voters to the polls will prevail.”

Advanced by Citizens to Reduce Local Property Taxes Statewide, a political action group composed largely of municipal officials and school workers, Question 1 goes to the voters for the second time in seven months after the proposal failed to win a majority of the vote in a three-way race last November.

The question asks: “Do you want the state to pay 55 percent of the cost of public education, which includes all special education costs, for the purpose of shifting costs from the property tax to state resources?”

Implicit in the proposition is that the question would require the Legislature immediately to honor its 1984 pledge of establishing 55 percent as the state’s share of local education costs.

The majority of rising education expenses in Maine are borne by local property taxpayers, many of whom would like to see the state significantly increase its current contribution of about 43 percent toward local education funding.

Proponents – such as the Maine Municipal Association and the Maine Education Association – maintain Question 1 would provide about $250 million annually that could be used by municipalities to lower property taxes.

“The details are a dry topic, but the core issue of how much and in what manner government is going to assess the people of the state of Maine to provide governmental services resonates very strongly with the voters,” said Geoffrey Herman of the MMA.

Herman and his adherents admit their proposal would do nothing more than shift the cost of education from the municipalities to state government.

Gov. John E. Baldacci and other opponents of Question 1 are convinced Mainers are in no mood to enhance the state’s high profile as one of the heaviest taxed states in the country, claiming additional taxes would be needed generate funding for the proposal.

Emphasizing there is nothing in the question that compels municipalities to use any additional revenues received for tax relief, Baldacci in recent days has painted a doomsday scenario for state services in the event Question 1 is approved by the voters.

“The governor and the Legislature are going to have to raise taxes to pay for this, and programs will be placed at risk [including] public safety, child care and mental health care – programs that benefit the most vulnerable amongst us,” Baldacci said. “You cannot get blood out of a rock, and the people in Maine have one of the highest tax burdens in the country. This money does not grow on trees.”

Baldacci and members of the anti-Question 1 PAC, Mainers for Real and Responsible Tax Relief – a coalition of businesses, state workers, health care industry representatives and others – are working just as hard as their opponents to get targeted voters to the polls Tuesday, and for good reason.

June primary elections rarely generate much interest among Maine voters who tend to flock in greater numbers to the general election in November.

There are no contested top-of-the-ticket primary races in Maine this year and only a handful of legislative or county primaries to attract Democrats or Republicans to the polls.

More importantly, independent, or unenrolled, voters compose the largest voting bloc in Maine. Since they cannot participate in party primary elections, the only issue on the ballot for independents is Question 1.

“Independents are not necessarily as involved this time,” FitzGerald said. “The MMA and the MEA have healthy constituencies and the power to get people out to the polls. But you also have the Maine State Employees Association [which opposes Question 1] who feel this will have a real negative impact on their employment. These are the kinds of distinct constituencies within the broad general population that will vote. I don’t think you’re going to see the vast majority of voters this time that typically participate in elections.”

Deja vu

Voters who haven’t kept up with the subliminal murmur of activity over Question 1 during the past few months may experience a mild sense of deja vu at the polls Tuesday.

The identical question first appeared on the ballot on Nov. 4 as Question 1A along with a competing measure, Question 1B and a none-of-the-above choice, known as Question 1C.

Question 1A arrived on the ballot as a citizen initiative spearheaded by the MMA, a lobbying and consultant group for municipalities, in a petition drive that attracted more than 100,000 signatures.

Ensuing efforts by the Legislature, the governor and the MMA failed to produce a compromise that would avert the need to place the question on the ballot. Question 1A moved forward and its opponents planned their counterattack.

Concerned that passage of 1A could result in serious funding cutbacks for the state’s Business Equipment Tax Reimbursement program, many of the state’s large industries got behind the governor and the Legislature’s efforts to short-circuit Question 1A.

They developed a competing measure called Question 1B that promised to reach the 55 percent education-funding target over a period of years rather than the immediate payoff demanded by MMA and MEA.

A third PAC supported the rejection of both proposals by voting for Question 1C with the promise of launching a more intensive look at state tax policy in a future legislative session.

With 51 percent of eligible Maine voters casting ballots for all three questions last fall, Question 1A received 38 percent of the vote, followed by Question 1B with 35 percent and Question 1C with 27 percent.

Maine law requires competing questions in such referendums to receive a majority of the vote in order to prevail. In the absence of a majority decision, the law allows the question with the highest number of votes to appear unopposed on the ballot in the next special or regular election that, in this instance, will be decided by voters Tuesday.

The campaign so far

Much hope had been held out by not only proponents of Question 1, but also lawmakers and the governor for a legislative compromise this year on the educational funding issue that, again, would have eliminated the need for a decision at the ballot.

On-again, off-again talks punctuated much of the legislative session, which produced a number of competing tax reform proposals – none of which was able to attract the necessary support.

Many Democrats wanted new taxes to pay for expanded state services along with local education costs, while others focused on tax relief plans aimed at beefing up the state’s tax rebate programs.

Republicans even went as far as to say they would consider new revenue sources if Democrats would agree to a constitutional cap on state, county and local spending.

In the end, partisan priorities prevailed and there was no legislative agreement on tax reform – a conclusion that only buttressed assertions by Question 1 proponents that the Legislature was devoid of political will and therefore incapable of resolving difficult issues such as tax policy.

As both sides became increasingly convinced that tax reform was sinking beneath the surface of the legislative quagmire, supporters and opponents of Question 1 began working their bases in preparation for Tuesday’s election which pales by comparison to the Nov. 4 effort.

Fund raising is way below the levels of last year’s $2 million in spending, according to campaign finance reports released Thursday by the state ethics commission.

Citizens to Reduce Local Property Taxes Statewide raised about $167,000 – largely in contributions from the MMA between April 1 and May 27 and had spent nearly $145,000.

Another pro-Question 1 group, Citizens Who Support Public Schools, was funded with a $300,000 contribution from the National Education Association. The opposing PAC, Mainers for Real and Responsible Tax Relief, raised about $206,000 during the period and spent $208,000, forcing them to dip into their reserve balances.

Most of Mainers’ support came in the form of $15,000 and $20,000 contributions from industries like Casella Waste, International Paper and Fairchild Semiconductor. The Maine State Employees Association also contributed $25,000 to the anti-Question 1 PAC.

Nearly all of the money raised has been channeled across Maine television screens as supporters and opponents of the education-funding plan make a pitch to the average voter.

In the meantime, Question 1 proponents have been rallying teachers and municipal workers in a get-out-the-vote effort.

The governor and business leaders have made numerous appearances at civic and social functions to convince voters on the merits of the Legislature’s Essential Programs and Services policy.

Signed into law this year, the legislation promotes reductions in school administrative costs, phases in additional revenues to reach the 55 percent educational funding target and provides an additional $70 million for education next year.