Kerry, Bush even in Maine

PORTLAND – President Bush and John Kerry were evenly divided in a statewide poll of likely voters conducted for the Maine Sunday Telegram.

Kerry and Bush had 43 percent each, Ralph Nader 3 percent and 10 percent were undecided, according to the Zogby International poll. The state ruled last week that Nader would appear on the ballot as an independent.

Voters were closely split on a proposal to cap property taxes, with 37 percent in favor, 36 percent opposed and 27 percent undecided. On a referendum measure that would ban bear hunting with bait, dogs and traps, the poll showed 52 percent opposed, 35 percent in favor and 14 percent undecided.

Zogby conducted the telephone poll Thursday using 400 randomly selected registered voters who identify themselves as likely to participate in national elections. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. All figures were rounded to the nearest percentage point.

The presidential poll indicated that Bush has pulled even in Maine despite voter reservations about his job performance. Only 45 percent of those surveyed gave the president an excellent or good job performance rating, while 55 percent said he has done either a fair or poor job. And only 43 percent of voters said Bush deserves to be re-elected, while 53 percent said it is time for someone new.

Pollster John Zogby said the Democratic nominee has not yet benefited from Bush’s weaknesses. “Bush is not posting very good numbers,” he said. “However, Kerry simply is not making the case yet.”

Prior to the Republican National Convention, Kerry had a 5-point lead over Bush, according to a Survey USA poll that had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. A June poll by Strategic Marketing Services of Portland showed Kerry with only a 2.5-point lead, well within the poll’s 4.9 percentage point margin of error.

“Suffice it to say that Kerry was leading by single digits and now you’ve got a tie,” said Zogby, who suggested that the deadlock in Maine reflects a boost in Bush’s popularity coming out of the GOP convention.

“I think it definitely is a reflection of a Bush bounce,” he said. “He’s basking in a national lead.”