CNN forecasts Bush win in Maine’s 2nd District

AUGUSTA – President Bush is poised to peel off one of Maine’s four electoral votes, according to an analysis released by Cable News Network on Friday – six weeks before the election.

Aired during its morning broadcast and posted on the network’s Web site, CNN reported President Bush would win in northern Maine’s 2nd Congressional District if the election were held Friday. The network based its forecast on an analysis that encompassed state polling and interviews with other strategists and political analysts.

The projection was good news for President Bush, who is scheduled to be in Kennebunkport today visiting his parents and taking a short break from the campaign.

Other than the development in Maine, CNN concluded little had changed this week for the president, who, according to the network, is leading in his re-election bid with a forecast 290 electoral votes to Democratic Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry’s 248 forecast votes. A total of 270 electoral votes is needed to win the Nov. 2 election.

“We think the entire state is very competitive at this point,” said Peter Cianchette, state chairman of the Committee to Reelect President Bush. “We feel the momentum is with us, but we won’t be distracted from the work that needs to be done regardless of what the polls say.”

Jesse Derris, who heads the Kerry campaign in Maine, said he would not comment on a “poll from CNN that is not backed up with any numbers.”

“All the numbers that have come out so far have us winning,” Derris said.

Although Maine has voted solidly for the Democratic presidential nominee since 1992, this year has opened a window of opportunity for the president in the 2nd District, which is perceived as more conservative and supportive of the war in Iraq than southern Maine’s 1st Congressional District.

The 2nd encompasses a huge part of the state, including Waldo County, Down East, Greater Bangor and Aroostook County.

Maine and Nebraska are the only states in the country that reserve the right to award electoral votes to candidates for carrying individual congressional districts. The statewide winner receives two electoral votes and can earn two more if he or she wins both districts. If the candidate carries just one district, the state electoral vote produces a 3-to-1 split.

Maine divided its presidential electoral votes in 1828 when Washington County gave one vote to the winner, Andrew Jackson. The other eight votes went to John Quincy Adams.

According to the CNN Web site, large numbers of veterans who live in the 2nd District are the bulk of the support for President Bush. The network’s analysts also speculated that hunters in the 2nd District who oppose a ban on bear baiting could also be presumed to be pro-Bush and will be helpful to the president on Nov. 2.

Maine Republican Party Executive Director Dwayne Bickford said neither of the two voter groups is likely to be inflamed by an anti-Bush, anti-Iraqi war ad in rotation on Maine television stations and paid for by the MoveOn political action committee. With the word “Quagmire” superimposed over the images, the ad shows an American soldier sinking into quicksand with an automatic weapon raised over his head – a symbol of surrender to those in combat.

The ad prompted former Montana Gov. Marc Racicot, Bush’s national campaign chairman, to call on Kerry to “apologize for the actions of his surrogates and demand that they take down their ad depicting a defeated American soldier.”

Derris said if the president’s defenders were really concerned about the morale of American soldiers in Iraq, they would encourage him to issue “the correct body armor” to military personnel and fund veterans’ health care benefits appropriately.

For more on the CNN poll, visit www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/.