Poll: Voters favor Michaud, Allen

Incumbent Democratic Congressmen Michael Michaud and Tom Allen have wide leads over their Republican challengers, based on a new poll released Wednesday.

The poll, conducted for WLBZ-TV in Bangor, WCSH-TV in Portland and the Bangor Daily News, show Michaud with a 21-point lead over Brian Hamel going into the final six weeks of the campaign for Maine’s 2nd Congressional District seat. Michaud leads 55 percent to 34 percent with 7 percent choosing another candidate and 4 percent undecided.

In the 1st District, incumbent Tom Allen leads Republican challenger Charles Summers by an even larger margin, 64 percent to 30 percent. Six percent either chose another candidate or were undecided.

The telephone poll, administered by Survey USA, surveyed 745 likely voters in the 2nd District, has a 3.7 percent margin of error. The 1st District poll surveyed 747 likely voters with a 3.5 percent margin of error.

Analysts say the results in the 2nd Congressional District could bode well for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, who polls show is running neck and neck with President Bush in northern Maine.

“Somebody like Michaud has an appeal to some Democrats, particularly blue collar Democrats, that John Kerry does not,” said Jim Melcher, a political scientist at the University of Maine at Farmington. “[Michaud] could bring some along. It could be helpful.”

But Melcher said a popular incumbent’s coattails are only so strong in Maine, a swing state where voters are known for their independence and their penchant to split parties while in the polling place.

“Maine is exactly the kind of place where people will do that,” he said.

With the November ballot featuring a referendum question that would ban certain types of bear hunting, Melcher said Michaud’s endorsement from the National Rifle Association might also prove helpful to Kerry. But he qualified his observation by saying hunters tend to be more conservative and might be more likely to vote for Bush.

In the 2nd Congressional District, Michaud leads by 9 points among men and 31 points among women, according to the poll. Michaud is holding 91 percent of his Democratic base, with 17 percent of Republicans crossing over to vote for him.

Hamel holds 75 percent of the GOP base, according to the poll, with 5 percent of Democrats crossing over to support him.

Independents and moderates break in Michaud’s favor by 5-to-2 ratios.

The poll did not account for a third candidate in the race, Carl Cooley of the Socialist Equality Party.

Both Michaud and Hamel are now airing television ads in the Bangor media market. Hamel ads also are running in the Presque Isle media market.

In addition to his recent television advertising, Hamel also will gain some widespread exposure today when he shares the stage with President Bush at a rally in Bangor.

Michaud and Hamel are scheduled to debate three times next month in Bangor, Lewiston and Fort Kent. Cooley likely will attend two of those debates.

The poll was taken between Sept. 19 and 21.