Republicans hope to claim the state’s four electoral votes

AUGUSTA – President Bush’s stop in Bangor today arrives at a pivotal moment in his re-election campaign according to one prominent Maine pollster who said Republicans sense the state’s four electoral votes could be within reach.

Since 1992, Maine has voted Democratic in presidential elections, but MaryEllen FitzGerald of the Portland-based Critical Insights marketing group said her preliminary analysis reflects an extremely tight race in the state. Although earlier polling indicated a sweep for Democratic nominee Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts, FitzGerald said Wednesday that Bush could very well win in Maine’s northern 2nd Congressional District and that the southern 1st Congressional District was just too close to call.

“It’s an absolute dead heat here,” she said. “My sense is that this election is very much in play.”

FitzGerald said the state’s controversial ban on bear baiting and a 1 percent property tax cap referendum will attract numerous Maine voters who otherwise might not have cast ballots in the presidential election.

“The tax cap issue is huge, and it’s my belief that those who would vote in favor of the cap would also vote for the president,” she said. “Those opposed to the bear baiting question tend to be a little more conservative and also could be perceived as votes for the president. It’s a very interesting dichotomy. We have two very polarizing referenda issues. One will definitely favor the incumbent and the other could produce a similar result.”

Operatives for the Bush-Cheney campaign have good reason to be optimistic, FitzGerald said, as the GOP senses new momentum favoring the president in Maine. The close national vote predicted by national polling groups such as the Zogby organization means that even one of Maine’s four electoral votes could be crucial for the winner on Nov. 2.

Maine awards one electoral vote to the winning candidate in each congressional district and two more to the statewide winner, meaning its electoral votes could end up split 3-1.

“President Bush is putting in time everywhere that it’s going to make a difference, and Maine is one of those places,” FitzGerald said.

Sensing that the race is tightening up in Maine is one thing; explaining it is something else. FitzGerald’s take on the campaign at the moment is that Bush’s new strength in Maine may have less to do with anything that the president is doing right and more to do with what Kerry is doing wrong. The pollster said that while voters may disagree with aspects of some or all of the president’s policies, most people think they understand what he stands for and what he’s trying to accomplish.

“There’s certainly not complete acclaim for what’s happened within this administration, even among the president’s core supporters, but my sense is that people just can’t figure out what Kerry stands for,” FitzGerald said. “His message is muddled, and the national scandal launched by the [ads] from the Swift Boat Veterans and the Dan Rather debacle have left people feeling uneasy. Mainers tend to respect integrity and ethical standards, and if they believe that those who support Kerry are trying to undermine that, Kerry will pay the price.”

Democrats in Bangor claimed Wednesday that it will instead be the president who will have to answer for lackluster economic initiatives that have benefited the country’s wealthiest Americans at the expense of the middle class. House Speaker Patrick Colwell, D-Gardiner, said there are plenty of reasons not to rehire the president for four more years, not the least of which was the loss of 1.8 million private sector jobs.

“On Nov. 2, there will be fewer jobs in America than when George Bush took office,” Colwell said. “George Bush has been the worst president for American workers since our nation crashed in the Great Depression under President Herbert Hoover. It’s time for a change in personnel. It’s time to hire a president that will make America stronger.”

Jim Tobin and Randy Bumps are spearheading the president’s campaign in Maine. Both men said they believe President Bush will secure the support of the entire state. Mainers like the president’s “positive and pro-active” policies that seek to unite Americans rather than divide them, Bumps said.

“This president has a record that appeals to the masses of Mainers,” Bumps said. “Whether it’s health care, education, economic policy or homeland security, his accomplishments are extremely clear. Those contrasts are drawn quite sharply with the accomplishments of his opponent.”

Jesse Derris, director of Kerry’s campaign in Maine, said if the president’s supporters were correct in their assessment of the incumbent’s re-election potential, there would be no need for today’s visit in the first place.

“No public polls have shown President Bush winning the 2nd District – none,” he said. “[Recent] CNN projections [that reached a contrary conclusion] were based on background talks and not on numbers. The president’s record is a record of failure for the 2nd Congressional District and for all of Maine.”

President Bush?s Visit

Where: Bangor International Airport

When: Today at 4:00

Admission: Tickets no longer available