Bush, Kerry fight for Maine votes

PORTLAND – Some people who live in Maine like to say there are really two Maines: the liberal, populous and relatively wealthy southern portion and the more conservative, rural, less wealthy northern district.

How these two different Maines vote on Election Day could make a difference in whether the state splits its four electoral votes for the first time since the state adopted its current system in 1969.

Though unlikely, the scenario is possible. Not only was the presidential race close four years ago, polling shows another tight race this year, particularly in northern Maine.

“We saw from the last campaign and the last election how important every electoral vote is,” said Jim Tobin, New England chairman of the President Bush’s re-election campaign, whose candidate visited Bangor last week.

Maine is viewed as a battleground state and recent polls show Bush and Democrat John Kerry are locked in a close race.

Maine is one of two states that divide their electoral votes. But unlike Maine, the presidential race is not viewed as competitive in the other state, Nebraska.

Maine awards two of its four electoral votes to the statewide winner, and one apiece for the winner of each of the state’s congressional districts. That raises the possibility of a 3-1 split.

Christian Potholm, a Republican political scientist at Bowdoin College, said the Bush campaign would have been satisfied with one electoral vote from the state’s northern district when it launched its campaign.

But Potholm said recent polls showing Bush and Kerry locked in a tight race have emboldened Bush, who now hopes to win all four votes.

“I don’t think they would be sending the president to Bangor if they didn’t think they had a shot at all four votes,” Potholm said of Bush’s rally at Bangor International Airport.

Bush’s trip marked his 12th presidential visit to Maine, where his parents have a home in Kennebunkport. Surrogates who have visited include Laura Bush, Chief of Staff Andrew Card and Treasury Secretary John Snow.

Kerry’s running mate, John Edwards, has visited Maine twice, along with surrogates including former New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, former Georgia Sen. Max Cleland and several swift boat Vietnam veterans.

Even though Tobin insists the Bush campaign is fighting for all four of Maine’s electoral votes, the Kerry campaign doesn’t buy it.

Jesse Derris, Kerry campaign spokesman in Maine, said Bush has no chance of winning southern Maine, so he’s shooting for votes in the northern district. And he suggested the strategy could backfire.

“Listen, the people in Maine understand that we’re going for all four electoral votes, and I don’t know that they like the fact that Bush is only speaking to certain voters in Maine,” he said.

Much of Bush’s attention has been focused on the 2nd Congressional District because even though Bush lost Maine by 5.1 percent to Gore in 2000, he lost by a smaller margin, 3.9 percent, in the northern district.

A poll released late last week showed Bush had gained on Kerry, and that Bush had stronger support in the northern district.

Overall, the Critical Insights poll showed a tight race in Maine with Kerry at 45 percent and Bush at 42 percent among likely voters, while 10 percent remained undecided. The margin of error was 4.5 percentage points.

Tony Corrado, a Colby College professor and visiting fellow at the left-leaning Brookings Institution, suggested people might be going too far in trying to draw distinctions between the two districts.

While the voter makeup is different in the districts, voters across the state share concerns about Maine’s economy, he said. Maine lost 17,800 manufacturing jobs between July 2000 and August 2003, according to a report.