Tax cap vote too close to predict Poll shows party, economic split

BANGOR – Mainers are split in more ways than one over a proposed property tax cap, according to a poll released exclusively to the Bangor Daily News on Thursday.

Overall, Maine voters were evenly divided over the issue with 47 percent in favor and 46 percent opposed to the Palesky tax cap referendum, which would limit property taxes to 1 percent of a property’s assessed value.

Seven percent were undecided, according to the SurveyUSA poll, conducted between Oct. 3 and Oct. 5 for WLBZ 2 Bangor, WCSH 6 Portland and the Bangor Daily News. The poll has a 4 percent margin of error.

The deepest divisions over the cap were not among north-south lines or rural-urban lines as is so often the case in Maine politics.

Instead Maine voters were most noticeably split along economic and party lines, according to the survey of 633 likely voters across the state.

The majority of those making less than $40,000 most strongly favored the cap, while 57 percent of those making more than $80,000 a year were opposed.

About 60 percent of those who identified themselves as Republican favored the cap, while 61 percent of Democrats surveyed were opposed.

The poll is the latest snapshot in what appears to be fluctuating support for the tax cap, informally named for its chief advocate, Topsham accountant Carol Palesky.

Palesky on Thursday was confident in her cause despite the trend showing her tax relief plan struggling to regain its once high level of support, which early polls measured at near 60 percent.

“We’re already setting up a room for our celebration,” Palesky said Thursday evening. “I think the majority of Maine people are going to support it.”

Dennis Bailey, spokesman for the anti-tax cap group, Citizens United to Protect Our Public Safety, Schools and Communities, said the Thursday poll showed opponents have made headway in their efforts.

“At one point, everyone was acting like [the tax cap] was a foregone conclusion,” Bailey said of the early support. “But, the more people look at this, it’s clear they don’t like it.”

The initiative, which will appear on the November ballot as Question 1, will cap property taxes at $10 per $1,000 of value.

The plan, as written, also would roll back property values to their 1996-97 levels. A property’s value could increase a maximum of 2 percent a year as long as it remains under family ownership.

Supporters say the cap will ease the crush of increasing property taxes that have forced Maine seniors, particularly those along the southern coast, to sell the ancestral homes they can no longer afford.

Opponents say the cap will decimate local budgets, causing deep cuts in police and fire protection, education and other town services. In their most recent television ads – which started airing Thursday – opponents also warned of increases in other taxes if the Palesky plan should pass.

The pro-tax cap group has been relatively quiet in the past month, airing only two radio spots. Palesky said Thursday she expected television ads would begin airing soon.

To find divergent views on the proposed tax cap, one need go no farther than either end of the bridge between Bucksport and Verona Island.

In Bucksport, one of Hancock County’s commerce centers, officials expect to see a loss of about $3.5 million in revenue, based on figures provided by the Maine Municipal Association.

Scott Craig, a 43-year-old tow truck driver, said the cap was the best way to send a message to town officials.

“It’s about making towns prioritize,” he said. “But they’re trying to convince everyone that their friends and neighbors will be living out of cardboard boxes if this passes.”

Across the bridge in Verona Island – a small town that offers relatively few services and already has a low tax rate – residents aren’t likely to see any changes to their tax bills if Palesky passes.

Nevertheless, Erika Emery, a 33-year-old independent voter there and Craig’s sister-in-law, said she wasn’t likely to support the plan.

“If we’re talking about losing all those jobs, it’s not worth it,” she said.