BAR HARBOR – Union 98 Superintendent Robert Liebow predicted “some big gutting” in school spending if the so-called Palesky tax cap passes on Nov. 2 and is found to be constitutional.

If a key portion of the tax cap language is found to be illegal, as many legal experts believe it will be, then only Southwest Harbor, Frenchboro and Swans Island schools would be seriously affected, Liebow said.

The other Union 98 towns of Bar Harbor, Mount Desert and Tremont would escape serious injury under the tax cap proposal in the “most likely” scenario, the superintendent said.

The reason is that the trio of towns has enough property value to hold down the property tax rate to 10 mills or less.

The Palesky measure would prohibit municipalities from raising more than 10 mills in property tax for both municipal and school budgets.

Under the worst-case scenario, in which the courts rule it is constitutional to roll back property values to 1996 levels, every community would lose significant annual tax revenue.

“It would be very difficult to maintain the present level of staff and services” should the tax cap be found constitutional in every respect, Liebow said.

The tax cap referendum was spearheaded by Carol Palesky of Topsham, an accountant who failed in two previous attempts to get enough legal signatures to force a vote on the proposal.

Palesky and other tax cap supporters assert that municipal and school officials across Maine are trying to scare voters away from supporting the referendum by telling them dire stories of potential service and school cuts.

Tax cap supporters argue the referendum is necessary because the Legislature has failed repeatedly to enact significant tax reform.

Schools’ staff salaries and benefits cost anywhere from 50 percent to 80 percent of their total budgets. As Liebow noted, Union 98 could cut all of its extracurricular activities, books, supplies and other nonsalary costs and still be far short of a balanced budget.

“The key to the future is education, and it costs money,” Liebow said. “Whether schools should be funded with property taxes is a legitimate question, but I don’t think communities want to see their schools dismantled.”

Meanwhile, Union 92 business manager David Bridgham said schools in Trenton, Otis and Mariaville, and Eastbrook and Waltham would be hurt the worst under the tax cap proposal.

Those are small schools in towns that would exceed the 10-mill tax cap and therefore have the biggest hits, Bridgham said.

The other three union towns of Hancock, Lamoine and Otis would not be seriously hurt by Palesky as long as the rollback on property values is ruled unconstitutional.

Both the Maine attorney general and a majority of the Maine Supreme Judicial Court, in advisory opinions only, have concluded the rollback is illegal.

Bridgham said he was surprised this week that two forums on the Palesky measure were so “poorly attended” – one in Trenton and another in Bucksport.

Many of the people who did attend were not aware of the basics of the referendum bill or its effect on their local schools, Bridgham said.

“Some are really surprised when they realize what Palesky is,” he said.