New poll gives Kerry lead in Maine

PORTLAND – A new poll shows Democrat John Kerry with an 11-point lead in Maine over President Bush with Election Day just more than a week away.

The Zogby International poll, conducted for the Maine Sunday Telegram, gives Kerry 50 percent of the vote, with Bush getting 39 percent. Independent Ralph Nader got just more than 1 percent, 8 percent were undecided and 2 percent said they would vote for other candidates.

Maine has been considered a swing state for months, but the poll shows that it may have lost its battleground status.

“You’re not in play” anymore on the national scene, said pollster John Zogby.

Zogby conducted the telephone poll Oct. 20 and 21, using 402 randomly selected voters who identified themselves as likely to vote. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

In the last Zogby poll for the paper, conducted Sept. 9, Bush and Kerry were tied at 43 percent each. Ralph Nader got 3 percent and 10 percent were undecided.

The new poll shows Kerry leading Bush 52 percent to 34 percent in the 1st Congressional District, and 48 percent to 44 percent in the 2nd Congressional District.

Maine has voted Democratic in the past three presidential elections, and Zogby said Kerry is finally doing as well as should be expected in a New England state that’s not particularly conservative. He credited Kerry’s surge to his performance in the three presidential debates in recent weeks.

Jesse Derris, Maine spokesman for the Kerry campaign, said the poll reaffirms that “Mainers are ready for a fresh start” with new leaders at the top, but he said the race remains close.

Peter Cianchette, Bush’s campaign chairman in Maine, said he believes Bush can still win Maine.

“Our numbers are stronger in the 2nd District, but I believe we’re very competitive in the 1st District,” he said.

The poll also suggests that two statewide referendums are headed for defeat on the Nov. 2 ballot.

Fifty-nine percent of the respondents said they would vote against a proposal to cap property taxes at 1 percent of a property’s assessed value, while 28 percent said they were for the measure and 13 percent were unsure.

In the last survey in September, 37 percent were in favor of the tax cap, 36 percent opposed and 27 percent undecided.

On a referendum that would ban bear baiting in the state, 54 percent said they opposed the referendum with 37 percent in favor and 9 percent unsure. In the previous poll, 52 percent opposed the referendum, 35 percent were in favor and 14 percent were undecided.