Election belies towns’ forecast Bellwethers prove unreliable picking 2004 president

Perhaps in “reversing the curse,” and winning the World Series, the Boston Red Sox inadvertently scrapped every other time-tested formula in life – including those used to predict the winner of the White House.

In Maine, it used to be one could count on the town of Stockton Springs to pick the nationwide winner in the presidential race. After all, the Waldo County village had proved a reliable bellwether, choosing the victor in every statewide election for the last 24 years.

That was before Tuesday, when voters there chose Democrat John Kerry over President Bush, 569-407.

“We didn’t do so well, did we,” Town Clerk Constance “Robbie” Pendleton said of the end of her town’s winning streak. “That’s OK, I still love my town, and nobody else did any better.”

Indeed, Kerry handily won Maine – north and south. And the four other towns – Bremen, Dresden, Farmington and Greenwood – in the running with Stockton Springs for the most reliable political pilot also chose Kerry.

Once upon a time, Maine itself had the distinction of being the national bellwether in presidential politics, spawning the phrase, “As Maine goes, so goes the nation.” The state’s status was unceremoniously rescinded when only Maine and Vermont chose Republican Alfred Landon over Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.

Based on Tuesday’s results and those of the previous three presidential elections, University of Maine political scientist Amy Fried said Maine no longer could be considered a swing state.

“We’ve become blue … part of a blue New England,” Fried said, referencing the color often used to indicate Democratic-leaning states.

Even in Maine’s more conservative 2nd Congressional District, where the race was expected to be close, Kerry won easily (52 percent to 46 percent), and by a wider margin than the 2000 Democratic contender, Vice President Al Gore.

While Maine and towns like Stockton Springs may no longer be considered accurate indicators of the national political trends, they are not alone.

In presidential politics, there are several bellwethers – some scientific, others rather silly. Few, however – scientific or silly – turned out to be reliable this year.

First the scientific:

. Sitting presidents with approval ratings below 50 percent normally don’t get re-elected. Bush’s approval ratings hovered just below that percentage for months leading up to the election, yet he easily won the popular vote.

. If the stock market declines in the two months before Election Day, it bodes well for the challenger. Not well enough, apparently, as Kerry couldn’t cash in on a 200-point decline in the market during that period.

Now the silly:

. When the Washington Redskins football team loses at home on the weekend before the election, the incumbent loses. Although the trend dates back seven decades, the Redskins, who lost 28-14 to the Green Bay Packers, could not deliver Kerry the presidency.

There are others:

. The taller candidate always wins. Kerry is 6-foot-4, Bush just shy of 6 feet tall. In the past 25 years, that measure held true until 2000, when Bush came from behind – or below, as the case may be – to beat Gore, who stands 6-foot-1.

Among the only bellwethers to earn their keep this election year is Ohio, where every Republican since Abraham Lincoln has had to win before claiming the White House. The other is the Scholastic magazine, which has accurately picked the winner in every election except two since 1940. In the Scholastic poll of more than 500,000 pupils in the first through eighth grades, 52 percent chose Bush and 47 percent chose Kerry.