After Arafat

Yasser Arafat spent more than 40 years surviving politically – through the Jordanian war, the Yom Kippur War, Lebanon, countless attacks and conspiracies, the Gulf War and beyond. He will end his life in Paris, away from his homeland and deceased politically for several years.

What happens next in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, of course, is unknown, but the United States can help merely by making it a Middle East priority, as British Prime Minister Tony Blair has pledged to do. One question for the United States and Europe, however, is whether it can properly identify the Palestinian leaders who have the strong support of their people.

Whoever is chosen, Mr. Arafat’s legacy will remain strong. Bahman Baktiari, director of the International Affairs Program at the University of Maine, observes that “nobody heard of Palestine until they saw him. He gave a face to Palestine and he himself was married to the revolution, but he didn’t develop a way to transform this into a coherent strategy.”

Phyllis Bennis of the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington says his legacy was uniting the three major groups of Palestinians – those “in the occupied land, inside Israel and the diaspora. … He kept a forcibly divided population relatively unified.” Both say his tolerance for government corruption hurt his ability to lead.

Mr. Arafat’s political death, says Professor Baktiari, was hastened by 9-11, which made all forms of terrorism unacceptable to the West even as the Palestinian leader could not control the activity of terrorists, and by Ariel Sharon, who confronted and confined Mr. Arafat in ways previous Israeli leaders did not.

Mr. Arafat was such a strong figure that even in his decline he commanded international focus. While he was resourceful though imperfect as a diplomat, his presence gave the Palestinians a person to lead what have become a long list of unsuccessful negotiations. Several possible leaders within the Palestinian Authority have been mentioned as successors; the Palestinian Legislative Council may have already chosen one. But with the growing popularity and power of Hamas, the PA may not be all the United States has to consider.

Hamas, considered terrorists by Israel and the West, is not only armed resistance. Much of its popularity, says Ms. Bennis, comes through its social programs – it offers day care and kindergarten, clinics and payments to families that have lost fathers.

When the West asks who is leading the Palestinian people, it would do best to see who Palestinians are following.