IRAQ, COLORED BY NUMBERS

Perhaps it is only an accounting matter in the chaos of the war in Iraq, but as American troops shift from Fallujah to Mosul to Baquba or wherever else uprisings occur, it is worth considering whether there is firm evidence their bravery and risk are producing a safer Iraq. This issue comes to mind after a quick check of the Iraq Index, a valuable and extensively researched list of tables and charts kept by The Brookings Institution.

For months the estimated strength of Iraqi resistance stood at 5,000. Despite the growing number of insurgents killed or captured by coalition forces, the remaining number was steadily 5,000, according to U.S. government sources. Then, Brookings reported

the number for several months in early spring simply as N/A, not available. When an estimate returned in June, it was 20,000 insurgents.

In June, July, August and September, the number of insurgents detained or killed was, respectively, 1,220, 1,000, 2,500 and 2,500. Besides June, the estimated number of remaining insurgents for those months was 20,000, 20,000 and 20,000. Brookings notes that in Time magazine British Maj. Gen. Andrew Graham by August figured the number of insurgents was actually between 40,000 and 50,000. The approximate number killed in Fallujah was 1,600, but there’s reason to expect that would reduce the total number of insurgents.

These figures, of course, don’t add up, and that may not be important – they may merely demonstrate that the number of insurgents is roughly in the low tens of thousands. A census is obviously hard to carry out in Iraq, but the situation would be more serious if the number cannot be reduced because the borders are still not sealed adequately and foreign fighters are still arriving or, more likely, Iraqis themselves are joining, or maybe half-joining, sympathetic and helpful but not actually setting improvised explosive devices.

Whatever the case, hoping that the number of insurgents declines as U.S. troops fight on has so far yielded no satisfaction: the number of Iraq is and others killed keeps rising; the number of insurgents remaining stays menacingly high.