Their votes have proved pivotal in some of Capitol Hill’s most contentious debates.

But Maine’s U.S. Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins find their future influence – and that of their shrinking fellowship of moderates – in doubt as they prepare to do business in an increasingly lopsided Congress and with a decidedly conservative administration.

While their politics have at times frustrated their party’s right wing both at home and in Washington, it’s that same appeal to independent voters that has Maine’s Republican rank and file lobbying either woman to come home and run for governor in 2006.

As far as their continued clout in Washington, both women count themselves undiminished.

“In the final analysis, anything major is going to require building consensus,” said Snowe, 57, who last week confirmed her intention to run for re-election in 2006.

“Sixty is still the magic number,” Collins, 52, said in a recent interview with the Bangor Daily News, referencing the number of votes needed in the Senate to break a filibuster and bring a bill to a floor vote.

On the prospect of taking on Democratic Gov. John Baldacci in 2006, rumors still persist in political circles. But thus far, neither woman has expressed much interest in the prospect.

Experts from both sides of the aisle say either Snowe or Collins would prove a formidable candidate for the job, which has been out of GOP hands since Snowe’s husband, Gov. John McKernan, ended his second term in 1994.

Snowe’s announcement of her intention to seek re-election would seem to put to rest any speculation about Maine’s senior senator.

Collins, who upon winning her Senate seat in 1996 said she would serve no more than two terms, appears a bit more open to the prospect. Two years into her second term, she smiled during her NEWS interview when offering that she had “no plans” to launch a bid for the Blaine House.

“I think the governor can make a real difference on a lot of issues I care about,” said Collins, who ran unsuccessfully for the post in 1994. “I’m certainly not ruling it out.”

A powerful place

Despite the open door, Christian Potholm, a Republican analyst and government professor at Bowdoin College, was skeptical about the prospects of either senator forsaking their Washington clout for the intense scrutiny that comes with the governor’s job.

Potholm added that, although popular statewide, neither woman would be a shoo-in against Baldacci, a four-term congressman whose approval ratings as governor hover in the mid-60-percent range.

What about the historic distinction of becoming Maine’s first woman governor?

“That and $5 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks,” said Potholm, the author of several books on Maine politics.

Indeed, Washington has been kind to both Snowe and Collins – and Maine senators in general, for that matter.

Last summer, Snowe, a major player in the debate over the Bush administration tax cuts at the time, earned a spot on Forbes’ magazine’s list of the 100 most powerful women in the world.

Collins, whose unlikely shepherding of intelligence reforms to the president’s desk Friday earned her accolades from her colleagues, now finds herself leading the once marginal – but increasingly powerful – Governmental Affairs Committee.

Their rise to the upper echelons of Washington politics – like that of fellow Republican heavyweight former Sen. Bill Cohen – has hinged on their moderation, a recipe for success for a “red” candidate in an increasingly “blue” state, experts say.

Amy Fried, a professor at the University of Maine, said without the penchant to buck their party, as they have done several times during their tenure, they wouldn’t wield the power they do.

“If they want to, they can have an impact on future legislation,” said Fried, echoing sentiments that Snowe and Collins will only increase their power as the number of moderates drop.

Cordial, but competitive

But for Republicans like Scott Fish of Dixmont, the owner and editor of the largely conservative Internet forum, AsMaineGoes.com, the pair’s moderation has proved frustrating.

“I never see press releases from them saying this is how we kept government off your backs and out of your pockets today,” said Fish, who voted for Collins in 2002, but left blank Snowe’s 2000 race. “It’s always announcing a million dollars for this, a million dollars for that.”

Fish assessed their records with one word – actually an acronym.

“They’re RINOs, [Republicans in Name Only,]” he said when asked of the most common criticism he’s seen on the Web site.

Both Snowe and Collins voted against President Clinton’s impeachment, sending a wave of discontent through the GOP’s right wing. Both voted against a ban on partial birth abortion. Both voted against the president’s plan to drill for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

They have differed on occasion – most recently on the “Unborn Victims of Violence Act,” which would add penalties to crimes that harm fetuses. Snowe, fearing it would diminish a woman’s right to choose, opposed it. Collins, convinced it wouldn’t, voted in favor.

But it’s their similarities that have spawned comparisons, with Potholm and others perceiving their relationship as “cordial but competitive.”

For the record, both Snowe and Collins, when asked to characterize their relationship, offer similar praises for one another’s service.

The fact that Collins might be in the spotlight now for her work on the intelligence bill, Potholm said, really means little in the long run, with Snowe likely to take center stage next session when her finance committee takes on the volatile issue of Social Security reform.

The fickle nature of the nation’s capital is not lost on either senator.

“Washington is a funny place,” Collins said. “You can be up one day and down the next.”