The Next Four Years

President George Bush will be inaugurated today after having received the greatest number of popular votes ever and by being re-elected by the narrowest margin of any president since 1828. This dichotomy reflects uncertainty about his presidency as well as the direction of the nation, and would make some leaders hesitate. Not Mr. Bush, who has offered large, bold ideas since he was first elected. Whether they are also beneficial ideas will be seen in the next four years.

Here are five broad areas by which to measure the president’s second term.

Iraq. More than 1,300 Americans have been killed following the administration’s misjudgment and misrepresentation of the dangers Saddam Hussein posed to the world. Tens of thousands of Iraqis have been killed in the war; some put the figure much higher. This nation’s debt is hundreds of billions of dollars deeper as a result. Once-friendly nations are now cool to the United States. Of course no one wants Saddam Hussein back in power, but the administration must demonstrate that removing him was worth the price. That is the primary challenge of the president’s next term.

Diplomacy. President Bush seems to regret that U.S. relationships with other nations went badly at the beginning of his first term, when his administration dumped missile treaties and rejected Kyoto. After Sept. 11, came needlessly provocative comments such as “old Europe” or threats to Turkey. Was this mere insecurity? Since the election in November, the president has made trips to Chile and Canada and next month is scheduled to travel to Europe – including the old one in Brussels – suggesting that he is seeking a more positive tone for the next four years. That is a hopeful sign.

Budget. When the president proposed annual tax cuts starting in 2001, the Chicken Littles of Washington claimed he was just draining the treasury and building up the deficit as a means to cut domestic programs later. The Chicken Littles were right. For the last month, the president has talked about cutting the deficit through spending control, meaning he will cut or restrain the growth of domestic programs. A true supply-sider would start booking new revenues; the president, a realist, has given the wealthy their money back and is slicing social services. The compassionate thing to do is narrow those tax cuts.

Environment. The environmental story of the next decade is climate change. In his first term, the president asked for studies on the question of whether human-caused pollution was affecting the planet; the answer he got back from the nation’s top scientists was that this was extremely likely, with countless effects all over the globe. The president studied the issue some more, spending quite a lot on these studies, and discussed voluntary targets. If the administration doesn’t like the Kyoto agreement, now is the time to offer a powerful, international alternative.

Social Security/Medicare. The two issues are linked only in that they are both entitlement programs for seniors. Otherwise, they define two ends of demand for federal action. Social Security has a fiscal crunch coming in about 35 years, but moderate changes now will extend that time for decades. Medicare is over budget now and growing at an alarming rate and requires choices that will not be popular with seniors, with those soon to be seniors, doctors, hospitals, drug companies, really anyone connected with health care. That explains why Social Security is on the agenda first but it doesn’t solve Medicare problems that will grow more pressing over the next four years.

As always, challenging times provide the opportunity for great deeds. In that sense, the president is a fortunate man.