Politicians weighing 2006 race for governor

Two years is an eternity in political time.

But Gov. John Baldacci’s informal, though predictable, announcement Thursday on Maine Public Radio that he would seek re-election set off a fair amount of political prophesizing about who would step forward to challenge the Bangor Democrat in 2006.

So far away from Election Day, the potential cast of contenders is long.

On the Republican side, the “maybe” list includes the party’s 2002 nominee, Peter Cianchette, former 2nd Congressional District candidate Brian Hamel, Senate Minority Leader Paul Davis, and even U.S. Sen. Susan Collins.

“You never say never to anything,” said Davis, the plain-spoken former state trooper and leader of the Republican caucus. “I get asked, but it’s a long way off.”

Like Davis, none of the players mentioned thus far has ruled out a bid for the Blaine House – and many more names have been bandied about, including Kevin Hancock, the president of Hancock Lumber Co. in Casco, as well as state Sens. Kevin Raye of Perry and Carol Weston of Montville.

“We don’t care who it is. Bring it on,” Baldacci spokesman Lee Umphrey said Friday. “The governor is going to run on his record and certainly not as a reaction to any particular opponent.”

How Baldacci’s major initiatives – including property tax and health care reform – play out over the next two years will likely carry weight with the electorate, political observers say.

“Even if people don’t think it’s perfect, it’s still something,” said University of Maine analyst Amy Fried. “If he says he’s going to take something on and he does, people respond to that, too.”

Baldacci was elected governor in 2002 with 47 percent of the vote to Cianchette’s 41 percent. Green candidate Jonathan Carter received 9 percent of the vote.

Despite Cianchette’s loss, Douglas Hodgkins, a GOP analyst at Bates College in Lewiston, said he thought Republicans could give the South Portland businessman another shot at Baldacci, whom Cianchette bested in the southern congressional district.

“I think a lot of people are going to wait and see what [Cianchette] does,” Hodgkins said Friday.

Whoever decides to run – unless they are independently wealthy – will need to make up their minds by September of this year in order to raise enough money to be competitive against a sitting governor, Hodgkins said.

In the 2002 governor’s race Baldacci, Cianchette and Carter spent more than $3.2 million combined.

The only thing, besides Baldacci’s candidacy, that seems certain is the potential for a three-way race, with Maine’s Green Independent Party poised to lose its official status unless it fields a candidate who earns more than 5 percent of the vote in either the governor’s race or the race for U.S. Senate – the only statewide contests on the 2006 ballot.

Several names have been mentioned as possible Green candidates for governor, including preservationist and Burt’s Bees co-founder Roxanne Quimby and Pat LaMarche, the Green vice presidential nominee in 2004.

LaMarche, who earned 7 percent of the vote in her 1998 run for governor, on Friday didn’t rule out a second attempt.

“When push comes to shove, no matter who runs for the Greens, they will get their 5 percent,” said LaMarche, adding that she would run in 2006 only if she believed she could win.

“I do think it’s winnable,” she said of the governor’s race. “But it is two years away.”