Survey finds Mainers cool to Bush plan Proposal on Social Security backed by only 24% polled

BANGOR – President Bush’s plan to overhaul the Social Security system received a cool reception from Mainers, according to a statewide poll released Thursday.

The Strategic Marketing Services survey found only 24 percent of Mainers favored Bush’s plan to allow younger workers to invest some of their Social Security contributions into private accounts.

The low support came despite the poll’s finding that nearly 75 percent of Mainers believed the program was “in crisis” or “had major problems.”

More than two-thirds of Mainers believed it was most important the program yield “guaranteed monthly benefits,” according to the poll, released the day after Bush’s State of the Union address, during which he outlined his plan to revamp the system. Twenty-five percent thought it was more important to allow private investments.

The Portland-based company’s survey of 400 Mainers was conducted between Jan. 24 and Jan. 29. It has a 4.9 percent margin of error.

Also on the subject of Social Security, the poll found that 67 percent said they would not invest some of their contributions in the stock market, if given the opportunity.

While the Maine poll was conducted before Bush’s Wednesday address, national polls, including a CBS News survey, taken immediately afterward suggested a bump in support for the plan.

The SMS poll, which measured public opinion on a variety of issues, also suggested Mainers generally approve of Gov. John Baldacci’s first two years in office.

Sixty-seven percent of those surveyed rated the Bangor Democrat’s job performance as either good or excellent. The percentages were similar to a poll conducted in September.

Baldacci’s high marks came despite Mainers’ relatively gloomy economic outlook, with half of those surveyed believing the state’s economy was on the wrong track.

Although it might seem a governor’s political fate rests in large part with the electorate’s pocketbook, voters often separate the two, according to Jim Melcher, a political scientist at the University of Maine at Farmington.

“People recognize that a governor has only limited ability to stop bigger trends,” said Melcher, attributing some of Baldacci’s good fortunes to heavy media coverage of his property tax reform efforts and, in central Maine, his announcement of 700 new call center jobs. “I think it’s more of a case of people seeing him as active and trying to do things in the economy.”

But Randy Bumps, chairman of the Maine Republican Party, expressed doubt about some of the poll’s numbers, which he said displayed support for Baldacci’s style more than the substance of his policies.

“I believe there is a moment in the governor’s near future, when people will separate out the political rhetoric and make a judgment about whether their economic lives are better than when he took office,” Bumps said.

In response to the state’s looming budget deficit, 56 percent of those surveyed said they would support a combination of increased taxes and budget cuts to close the two-year gap, estimated at $733 million. Thirty-six percent said they would rely solely on budget cuts while only 3 percent favored a plan that only raised taxes.

Of those who said they would consider increased taxes, 36 percent said they favored increasing Maine’s 5 percent sales tax. Of those who favored budget cuts, 55 percent didn’t know which programs should be cut.

Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed said they supported strengthening Maine’s seat belt law by increasing fines and allowing police to stop motorists not wearing a seat belt.

On the issue of same sex marriage, 38 percent said they supported full marriage rights for gays and lesbians. Thirty-one percent supported civil unions, but not gay marriage, and 27 percent opposed any legal recognition.

On a lighter note, football fans in Maine were confident the New England Patriots would win this weekend’s Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles, with 79 percent of those surveyed predicting victory.