The 77th Academy Awards air Sunday night at 8 p.m. on ABC, and not unlike the title of one of last year’s best foreign films, the show promises to be a very long engagement, indeed.

But not necessarily boring.

With Chris Rock onboard as the controversial host and not one film poised to dominate, we have on our hands a four-hour-plus awards show that promises more tension than a celebrity face-lift.

And that’s some tension, particularly with the edgy, unpredictable Rock promising to hammer the crowd with his cutting quips and the fact that this year, several of the top races are as wide open as the plot holes in “The Village.” It’s that unusual event that will give the show the spark of life it needs, allowing for several surprises to be tucked within the shoo-ins.

One of the night’s tightest races belongs to Best Picture, with “The Aviator” and “Million Dollar Baby” now generating more heat than the slightly slipping “Sideways.” “Finding Neverland” and “Ray” round out the category, but neither is considered a frontrunner for the award.

Which deserves to win? That’s subjective, of course, but it’s especially difficult to choose between Martin Scorsese’s “The Aviator,” which got so much right technically, and Clint Eastwood’s “Million Dollar Baby,” which got so much right emotionally.

When you look at what Scorsese had to accomplish with “The Aviator,” how he had to capture, mirror and flesh out a well-documented piece of history, his hugely entertaining biopic about the reclusive billionaire Howard Hughes (Leonardo DiCaprio) initially appears to have the edge.

Some scenes in the movie are masterful, such as the decadent re-creations of the parties at the Coconut Grove; the harrowing scene in which Hughes takes to the skies to film an aviation battle for his movie “Hell’s Angels”; the marvelous clash of personalities between Hughes and Maine Sen. Owen Brewster (Alan Alda); the moment Hughes crashes a plane into the rooftops of Beverly Hills.

Terrific stuff, but then you see “Million Dollar Baby” and your heart breaks. Eastwood makes it all look so easy – too easy – which is his gift and an illusion. The gentle rhythm he creates, the attention to character he mines, the great performances he pulls from himself, Hilary Swank and Morgan Freeman (all up for awards), are just right.

This is one of those years where a tie for Best Picture would make a lot of people happy, myself included. But since that isn’t about to happen, my gut says “Million Dollar Baby” will win because it has touched so many, though “The Aviator” deserves to win because of its broader scope and more complicated shoot.

Given the fight for Best Picture, also up for grabs is the award for Best Director, with Scorsese and Eastwood again in a dead heat. The three other nominees – Mike Leigh for “Vera Drake,” Taylor Hackford for “Ray” and Alexander Payne for “Sideways” – will be caught on the sidelines.

With Eastwood winning the Directors Guild Award, the momentum is behind him, but don’t count out Scorsese. He has yet to win an Academy Award for directing, many consider him long overdue, his film was far more difficult to pull off than Eastwood’s, and moreover, history has proved that just because one wins the DGA doesn’t ensure Oscar gold. Who deserves to win? That would be Scorsese. Hands down, it’s Scorsese.

Who will win? Probably Eastwood – they love Eastwood – but if somebody doesn’t give the award to Scorsese soon, he’ll be lunching with Susan Lucci.

Following suit in the haze of uncertainty that hangs over this year’s awards is the award for Best Actress, with Hilary Swank up for “Million Dollar Baby,” Annette Bening for “Being Julia,” Imelda Staunton for “Vera Drake,” Kate Winslet for “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind,” and Catalina Sandino Moreno for “Maria Full of Grace.”

This year, there’s no question who deserves to win – Swank for “Baby.” A close second would be Staunton for her devastating performance as a backstreet abortionist in “Drake.” Still, while the race is tight, it isn’t tight because of Staunton. There’s another, more complicated reason.

In 1999, when Swank won the Academy Award for Best Actress for her performance in “Boys Don’t Cry,” she was up against Bening for her performance in “American Beauty.” As fate has it, this year the two actresses square off again, which, if history serves, doesn’t bode well for Swank.

Time has proved that Oscar likes to share the wealth. Awards often don’t go for the best performance, but for a sentimental favorite or for a career that deserves recognition.

Though Bening doesn’t make many movies and “Julia” has made only $8 million at the worldwide box office, she nevertheless is enormously popular in Hollywood, with many voters believing she was cheated out of her best hope for an Oscar when the Academy didn’t nominate her for her 1991 performance in “Bugsy.”

Will she win the award? Maybe. But Swank deserves it and unless the Academy throws her a suckerpunch, it will be her taking the stage.

Adding more punch to the night, as if it will need it, will be the five actors competing for Best Supporting Actor: Alan Alda as Sen. Owen Brewster in “The Aviator,” Thomas Haden Church as a lost soul in “Sideways,” Jamie Foxx as a beleaguered cabby in “Collateral,” Clive Owen as a predatory creep in “Closer,” and Morgan Freeman as a former boxer in “Million Dollar Baby.”

With the exception of Foxx, who won’t win for obvious reasons (see below), the race has viable contenders all around. Still, it’s Freeman who will win. Not only does he deserve the award for “Baby,” but other factors are at work here. This is his fourth nomination, he is regarded as one of our best living actors, and the Academy has yet to officially recognize him and his nearly 40-year career with an award. That will change Sunday night.

As for Best Supporting Actress, this year’s race promises to offer one of the night’s biggest surprises. The nominees are Cate Blanchett for “The Aviator,” Laura Linney for “Kinsey,” Virginia Madsen for “Sideways,” Sophie Okonedo for “Hotel Rwanda” and Natalie Portman for “Closer.”

If you believe the buzz – and there’s good reason to believe it – Madsen and Portman have the edge, with Madsen winning the Critic’s Choice Award and Portman winning the Golden Globe. But while both were good, neither gave the brave, risky performance that Blanchett gave in “The Aviator.” Playing Katharine Hepburn isn’t exactly like playing little Nell from the country. We’re talking screen icon here – a role that was sink or swim, with no room for failure. And so Blanchett, powerhouse that she is, rose to the challenge, sailing through the movie at a brisk Connecticut clip.

She remains the dark horse in the race, but the light is catching up with her. In the past few weeks, she has won the Screen Actor’s Guild Award and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts Award, both excellent indicators of how Oscar will vote. If she wins – and I’m going against the buzz to bet that she will win – it will be well-deserved for her performance and also a fine way to honor a woman who already has given us the performance of a lifetime in 1998’s “Elizabeth.”

In the end, this year’s awards offer only a few locks.

The evening will hit a predictable stride with a win for “The Incredibles,” which will rightfully take Best Animated Picture over its competition, “Shrek 2” and “Shark Tale.” In the writing categories, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor will win Best Adapted Screenplay. Likewise for Charlie Kaufman, who will win Best Original Screenplay for “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind,” though Brad Bird deserves it for “The Incredibles.” As for Best Foreign Film, look to “The Sea Inside” – that’s where Oscar will be shining.

The award for Best Actor is a foregone conclusion. Jamie Foxx will win over Don Cheadle for “Hotel Rwanda,” Johnny Depp for “Finding Neverland,” Leonardo DiCaprio for “The Aviator” and Clint Eastwood for “Million Dollar Baby.”

If the planets somehow align against him and he doesn’t win, it won’t just be the biggest upset of the night, but one of the biggest upsets in recent Oscar history.

In “Ray,” Foxx got to the heart of Ray Charles, relating so completely with the man that he became him. His performance went deeper than imitation. In lesser hands, it could have been disastrous – a pantomime of horrors that was all wrong. But like Blanchett, Foxx was willing to take risks, which allowed him to present a gifted artist haunted by his share of demons.

His win won’t surprise a soul Sunday night, but mirroring his performance in “Ray,” his acceptance speech will move its share of them.

Christopher Smith is the Bangor Daily News film critic. His reviews appear Mondays and Fridays in Style, and are archived at RottenTomatoes.com. He may be reached at BDNFilm1@aol.com.