KITTERY – Instead of fretting about the possible closure of the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, area residents should start imagining how it could bounce back, according to an economics expert.

Peter Francese, director of demographic forecasts for New England Economic Partnership, said he doesn’t want the yard to close, but if it does, it could be replaced with more, better-paying jobs.

The shipyard is at risk as the Pentagon prepares to save money by shutting down or scaling back a quarter of about 425 military facilities across the country this year.

If Portsmouth is among the casualties, 4,800 jobs would be lost, but Francese forecasts that, with careful planning, 6,000 to 7,000 jobs could result.

He points to the successful transformation of the former Pease Air Force Base in New Hampshire, which was ordered to shut down in 1988. More than 5,000 jobs have been created since then, more than 10 times the number of positions offered at the base.

“Look at the average salary at Pease [International Tradeport] versus the average salary when it was run by the military,” Francese said. “It’s at least twice as much, even considering inflation. I don’t see why we couldn’t do it again.”

But Ross Gittell, professor at the Whittemore School of Business and Economics at the University of New Hampshire, points to the numerous differences between Pease and the shipyard.

Gittell highlighted Pease’s convenient highway access and the fact that Pease closed before the mid-1990s economic boom.

And Eileen Foley, who was mayor of Portsmouth, N.H., when Pease closed, said there was a transition period between closure of the air base and today’s success that is often overlooked.

She described that period as a wake, or mourning stage. Schools closed because children moved away with their families, and businesses’ windows were boarded up.

“It was a very difficult time,” Foley recalled. Foley said it took nearly 10 years before the city overcame the closure. She said planning for a closure of the shipyard should begin now, but she called for an optimistic approach.

“It should be a happy plan to make it stay open; a plan for just in case,” she said. “We should be planning to have it stay open, and if doesn’t, use the other as a backup.”

Francese said possibilities for Portsmouth include converting the area to a private shipyard that could refurbish tugboats, private yachts or Canadian boats.