Experts fear risk of spring flooding Cold temperatures set stage for trouble

Maine’s unseasonably cold temperatures could set the stage for spring flooding along major rivers, weather forecasters and state officials agree.

The northern Maine snowpack has normally started to melt by this time of year, but that has not been the case this winter.

With Tuesday’s storm and another forecast for the weekend, snow depths are increasing, raising the fear that a quick warm-up this spring could combine with heavy rains to overwhelm the state’s waterways.

“All of the major rivers are at risk,” said Tom Hawley, a National Weather Service meteorologist.

The River Watch Advisory Commission, composed of state and federal officials, met last week in Augusta and determined that the situation is worrisome and merits monitoring. The panel plans to meet again March 24.

While central and northern Maine have received average snowfall amounts, the cold weather has kept the snow from melting.

Marc Loiselle, a hydrogeologist for the state Department of Conservation, said the situation resembles 1987, when the state had severe flooding.

But it’s also similar to 2001, he said, when there was little flooding.

The critical factor will be the amount of rain.

“Flooding is really driven by rain,” Loiselle said. “We had essentially no rain in April [2001]. We dodged the bullet in that case.”

Loiselle and others say the state seems to have entered a stormy period. If it continues and temperatures warm, there could be trouble.

“Three inches of rain plus the equivalent of a couple of inches of snow runoff could be enough to produce significant flooding in, say, a Gardiner or Augusta or Hallowell.” Loiselle said.

Another concern is ice jams, which can also lead to flooding. Officials say this year’s ice thickness is about normal.