November 25, 2024
ANALYSIS

Closings could take toll on re-election hopes

WASHINGTON – Painful cries echoed from the New Mexico statehouse to congressional offices in Mississippi, Pennsylvania and Connecticut on Friday as Republicans and Democrats, revving up for 2006 re-election bids, absorbed the military base hit list.

The proposed shuttering of dozens of installations, while rarely politically fatal, still complicates the campaigns of governors and members of Congress, who suddenly face voters fearful of losing a revenue-producing base or, worse, their jobs.

“If it contributes to a disgruntled electorate, it adds uncertainty to the politics and nobody likes that,” said Rep. Rush Holt, D-N.J., who is fighting to get Fort Monmouth (4,652 civilian jobs, 620 military) off the list.

New Jersey could lose three smaller facilities and see operations scaled back at two more – a net loss of some 3,700 jobs and added pressure for Democratic Sen. Jon Corzine, who is seeking the governorship in November.

State Republicans were quick to blame Corzine for the New Jersey installations on the list.

“Base closures are often the nexus of politics and the economy,” said Jano Cabrera, a former aide to several Democratic presidential campaigns.

Mississippi Sen. Trent Lott, a Republican who at times has had a contentious relationship with the Bush White House, tried to stop the latest round of closures, even putting a hold on the nominees to the base closing commission and forcing President Bush to install the nine through recess appointments.

Prominent on the closure list was Naval Station Pascagoula (844 military jobs, 112 civilian), a major setback to Lott, who not only faces re-election next year but is the son of a shipyard worker. Still, Pascagoula barely survived earlier rounds, and its recommended closure came as no surprise.

“One wonders if Senator Lott’s constituents will view his activism on balance as helpful or hurtful,” said Steve Grundman, a Defense Department official in the Clinton administration.

Lawmakers often complained in previous years that politics played a role as the Pentagon compiled its hit list. This year’s lineup stands as an equal opportunity cause of political heartburn.

Recommended for closure is the submarine base in New London, Conn., (more than 8,500 jobs), which is problematic for both Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman and Republican Rep. Rob Simmons in his Democratic-leaning district. Both face re-election next year.

Pennsylvania Democrats immediately seized on the news that the state has 13 facilities on the closure list and faces the loss of close to 2,000 jobs, faulting Republican Sen. Rick Santorum but not his GOP colleague Sen. Arlen Specter. Santorum is seeking another term next year.

Gaining jobs were Florida, home to the president’s brother, Gov. Jeb Bush, but also Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson, a 2006 candidate; Georgia, despite proposed closures in Atlanta; and Colorado, with a new Democratic senator, Ken Salazar.

The list reverberated in some statehouses. The Pentagon recommended closing New Mexico’s Cannon Air Force Base (2,385 military, 384 civilian jobs), with three Democrats – Gov. Bill Richardson, Sen. Jeff Bingaman and Rep. Tom Udall – facing re-election next year.

The base is located in Curry County, on the Texas border, and the county overwhelmingly went for President Bush in 2004. Brian Sanderoff, a longtime pollster in the state, said the county “is not exactly Bill’s base of support, although he held his own in the conservative areas” in the last gubernatorial election.

Dave Carney, a Republican consultant in New Hampshire, argued that governors in Maine and New Hampshire “will take more of a hit than senators will” for the recommended closure of the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard in Kittery, Maine (more than 4,200 jobs). That would be better news for Republican Sen. Olympic Snowe, who is seeking another term next year.

The recommended closure of Ellsworth Air Force Base (nearly 4,000 jobs) was a significant blow to freshman Republican Sen. John Thune, who argued during the 2004 campaign that he – not Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle – would be in a better position to save the facility that houses half the nation’s fleet of B-1B bombers.

Thune contended that the Republican White House would heed his calls; Daschle countered that in previous years he had kept Ellsworth off the list.

“John Thune gets all the blame for this,” said Steve Hildebrand, who was Daschle’s campaign manager.

Thune vowed on Friday to lead the fight in the Senate to delay the latest round, even though the process likely will go forward. Daschle said he hopes to join the fight to keep the base open.

Shuttering a base takes about six years. By that count, Ellsworth would be on the verge of closing around 2010, when Thune would be up for re-election.


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