AUGUSTA ? Both state and national polling data suggest this fall’s likely referendum on whether to endorse the new state anti-discrimination law will split Mainers along generation lines, with younger voters supporting the law and older voters opposing it.

“I have been watching polling on this very carefully,” University of Maine political science professor Amy Fried said recently. “What we have seen in Maine is very similar to what has been found in the national polling data.”

In 2000, Mainers voted on a similar law that had been endorsed by the Legislature and rejected it by a slim margin of 4,854 votes out of the 632,858 votes cast on the issue. Exit polls of more than 2,000 Mainers indicated a sharp generation split. Those voters 18 to 24 supported the law by a two to one margin; voters over 75 opposed it by a similar wide margin.

“All the national data show differences by age group that are similar to that in the polling from 2000,” she said.

The 2000 exit poll data indicated voters in the middle-age categories were closely divided on the issue, with age still a significant factor. The 2000 data indicated that the older the voter, the greater the tendency to vote against the proposal. Fried said current polling data is showing that as voters have aged, their stances on the range of gay rights issues have not changed.

Bowdoin College government professor Chris Potholm agreed. He said the generation gap on the issue has been pronounced in every national poll he has seen, as well as in state surveys.

“I don’t see any reason why the trend would not continue this election,” he said.

Douglas Hodgkin, a retired Bates College government professor, said the consistency in the polling data means it is likely that the trend will continue in both the nation and in Maine.

Hodgkin has observed Maine politics for decades and taught several political science and government courses during his tenure as a professor at Bates.

“There is also a very content pattern, regardless of whether we are talking a presidential race or a special election,” he said.

The analysts agree that the demographics in the public opinion surveys may not be the same as the demographics of actual voters. Past Maine special elections, including the 1998 vote on gay rights legislation, saw a different makeup of voters than in the general election.

There is also agreement that in a lower turnout, there is a higher percentage of older voters.

“Certainly more old people have died and more young people have turned 18 since 2000,” Potholm said. “But I have always thought the 20 percent that have not made up their minds [and] have not committed on the issue will decide the outcome. Forty percent are for gay rights, and 40 percent are against special rights, and it will be the campaign for those who have not decided how they see the issue.”

Hodgkin said the voting history of the issue in Maine has been close votes at the polls.

Because of that, he believes the get-out-the-vote efforts that are expected to be mounted by both sides of the issue could prove the difference.

Potholm said there are also different issues in play this year. The business community is supporting the law because of fear of being the only state in New England without an anti-discrimination law. He said another key factor is the way many Mainers look at the issue.

“Most Mainers know someone that is homosexual, and they do not believe gays are discriminated against because they do not discriminate against them in their town,” he said. “To be successful, the gay rights supporters must show that there is discrimination in Maine and that the law would stop that.”

Fried said economic issues may not play well in rural, conservative communities as do moral concerns on issues such as gay marriage, and that is much more of an issue now than five years ago.

“Those that believe anyway that the bill is a foot in the door towards gay marriage are not likely to be swayed by other arguments like the economic or discrimination arguments,” she said “They are looking at it as a moral issue.”

Fried stressed that overall attitudes have changed. Current polls show 60 to 65 percent support for gay marriage in national opinion polls. That support simply did not exist five years ago, she said.

“I think the middle ground on this has moved,” she said. “That could make the difference.”